Why Both US And China Are Courting Pakistan

Is Pakistan the new battle ground between China and the US as the latter seeks to re-enter the region it had withdrawn from in August 2021?

President Donald Trump’s lunch for Pakistan’s Army Chief Gen Asim Munir last month, and the lavish praise from Centcom Chief Gen Kurilla about Islamabad’s cooperation in counter terrorism, suggests the two are trying to re-build bridges.

Recall the killing of Al-Qaeda chief Ayman Zawahiri in a US drone strike in Kabul in July 2022: Pakistan may well have been involved, a pointer to how the Washington-Islamabad tie was evolving.

This is bad news for China, which is probably why it is pushing for a new trilateral arrangement in South Asia displacing India. By holding out the carrot of a regional arrangement minus India, China hopes Pakistan will remain on its side and not be “led astray” by the US. Recall also an earlier trilateral China hosted with Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The Kunming meeting last month, which Bangladesh and Pakistan attended, was graced by no less than Sun Weidong, China’s vice foreign minister and former ambassador to India. A joint statement released at the end of their meeting called for “true multilateralism and open regionalism” in South Asia while insisting it “was not directed at any third party.”

Sun himself described Pakistan and Bangladesh as good neighbours, good friends and important partners for high quality joint construction of the BRI. Trilateral cooperation, he said, would bring peace, development and prosperity to the region.

China’s digital media quickly weighed in. Sohu.com, an online search and blogging platform carried an article two days ago with a headline that pulled no punches: “India has already disappointed all countries. Is China bringing in a new team to play? Modi can think it over himself.”

The article argued that SAARC has stagnated under India’s attempts to maintain dominance rather than foster genuine cooperation. It notes that SAARC has held only 18 summits in 40 years, with none in the past decade, and India’s 2016 boycott after a Kashmir attack effectively paralysed the platform. It further claims India’s attempt to replace SAARC with BIMSTEC has failed to deliver.

QQ, an instant messaging and web portal, claimed that China and Pakistan are creating a “new framework” to replace SAARC, and described it as a historic turning point in South Asian geopolitics as India faces regional isolation while China steps in to lead.

An analysis by the Russian satellite news agency Sputnik carried more details. It quoted commentator Zhou Chengyang as saying that the “South Asian region needs external forces to enhance the well-being of the people of the region … China’s active participation is a responsibility …China has no selfishness in South Asia … and its active participation in regional affairs is due to the objective needs of the region.”

The article acknowledges that India is unlikely to join the new organisation, especially one where Pakistan is the initiator, but it cites Sri Lanka, Maldives and Afghanistan as potential members. Zhou is quoted as saying that China will help Pakistan increase its bargaining power in South Asian affairs and contribute to its sustained economic development.