How effective has the US air strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities been? Have these irretrievably setback its nuclear programme?
Brig Arun Sahgal of the Forum for Strategic Initiatives, pointed to The New York Times and other papers, “indicating the damage may not be as much as it is claimed. But the bottom line is the Iranian nuclear programme has been hit, the heavy water plants are no longer operational.”
On the positive side, his assessment is the stockpile of enriched uranium has been moved to a safer location and remains intact, but major damage has been done to the centrifuges that enrich the uranium.
“The Iranians have enough enriched uranium, up to 80% plus levels to make tactical or just above tactical nuclear weapons, five to 20 weapons that can be utilised in circumstances of their choice,” he said.
“What is clear is that Iran’s nuclear bomb project, assuming they had one, is only delayed but is inevitable … whoever comes to power in Iran cannot give up the nuclear ambition.”
Add to that Iran’s fairly sophisticated rocket/missile programme that can hit targets 3000 to 4000 km away and points to China which, he says, has provided Iran complete access to the Beidou navigation system which enables the missiles to home in on targets plus or minus one metre.
Russia has also stepped in. Recall that Iran has provided them with killer and kamikaze drones, expect Russia to return the favour by upgrading Iran’s existing S400 air defence system and also supplying launchers for missiles.
A word on the international nuclear order: the US which upholds the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, has attacked a fellow member even though there is no hard evidence that Tehran is developing a nuclear weapon. This may encourage countries like Russia to push for tactical nuclear weapons.
India’s concerns will centre around calls for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which our energy supplies transit.
As for the larger international order, Brig Sahgal says Japan and South Korea may feel the need to develop nuclear weapons while India must develop and test a 10,000-km ICBM and also ensure the hypersonic missile now under development is nuclear capable.
Tune in for more in this conversation with Brig Arun Sahgal of the Forum for Strategic Initiatives.
