The SCO summit beginning in Islamabad tomorrow has evoked a good degree of curiosity in anticipation of how things will play out between India and Pakistan.
Likewise, there is equal interest in watching how India and China will use the SCO platform as an opportunity to mend their frozen relationship.
How Will Jaishankar And the Chinese Premier Exchange Greetings?
All eyes will be on any interaction that External Affairs Minister S.Jaishankar may have with the Chinese Premier, Li Qiang, in Islamabad.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to come face-to-face at the BRICS summit later this month in Russia.
Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan is the first by an Indian diplomat in ten years.
Pakistan is hosting the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Council of Heads of Government(CHG)meeting in its capacity as the current Chair of the CHG.
Shehbaz Sharif to Preside Over the SCO Summit
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will preside over the summit on October 15 and 16.
Pakistan Foreign Office has said that Prime Minister Sharif will also hold important bilateral meetings with visiting heads of the delegations on the sidelines of the main meeting.
But Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar has said that neither India nor Pakistan have requested a bilateral meeting during Jaishankar’s presence in Islamabad for the summit.
Which Side Will Blink First?
It however remains to be seen if the host country will make the first move for a courtesy meeting with India’s External Affairs Minister, to address the frosty relationship.
Modi Will Be Conspicuous By His Absence
Pakistan Foreign Office said, “SCO member States will be represented by the Prime Ministers of China, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as well as the First Vice President of Iran and External Affairs Minister of India.’’
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be conspicuous by his absence at the summit.
But Jaishankar says that normally, the Prime Minister goes to the higher level meetings- Heads of State.
Jaishankar explained, “ Usually, one of the ministers go for the Heads of government meetings. So, that is in line with the tradition.”
Agenda Of The Meeting
The CHG meeting will discuss ongoing cooperation in the fields of economy, trade, environment, socio-cultural linkages.
The meeting will also review the performance of the SCO.
What Is SCO?
Founded in 2001, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a political and security bloc founded in Shanghai on June 15, 2001.
The ten member SCO comprises Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Iran and Belarus.
SCO is part of India’s stated policy of pursuing multi-alignments
Apart from these, three Observer States interested in acceding to full membership are Afghanistan, Belarus and Mongolia.
Foreign Ministers Of India and Pakistan Did Not Shake Hands At the Goa Summit
During the 2023 SCO summit in Goa, the broadside between Bhutto Zardari and his Indian counterpart Jaishankar shifted the focus from matters of regional security.
The lack of warmth between the two leaders pointed towards the standoff between the two South Asian neighbours.
Jaishankar and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari did not shake hands at the 2023 SCO summit and posed standing at a distance.
Zardari happened to be the first Pakistani foreign minister visiting India in 12 years.
His heated exchange with Jaishankar did not go down well with people in India.
Jaishankar Not Going To Pakistan To Discuss India-Pakistan Ties
It is therefore not surprising that Jaishankar has emphasised that he is going to Pakistan as a good member of the SCO.
He has asserted that his visit should be viewed from the prism of the multilateral event and not any bilateral implications
At a public event in New Delhi early this month, Jaishankar said, “ I’m not going there to discuss India-Pakistan relations’’
He further said, “ I am going there to be a good member of the SCO but since I am a courteous and civil person, I will behave myself accordingly.’’
Last month, Jaishankar sent a strongly-worded warning to Pakistan while addressing the 79th United Nations General Assembly session in New York.
India Has Signalled Its Intention To Stabilize The Relationship With Pakistan: Ajay Bisaria
How do seasoned diplomats and foreign policy experts interpret Jaishankar’s remarks about his participation at the SCO Summit?
India’s former High Commissioner to Pakistan, Ambassador Ajay Bisaria, says, “ Basically, what is happening on both sides is expectation management.’’
Bisaria said, “ In my interpretation, the External Affairs Minister’s remarks that he is a polite person actually signals that he is not close to any courtesy meeting.’’
“ India has actually signalled its intention to stabilize the relationship with Pakistan,” said Bisaria.
He further said, “ It also means that if the host government says to the guest that they should have a courtesy meeting, the guest will not say no. ‘’
Bisaria added that Pakistan’s political appetite will determine if it proposes a courtesy meeting with India on the sidelines of the summit.
SCO Summit Is Not The Right Platform For Sorting Out Bilaterial Issues
Dr Sanjay Deshpande, Director of the Centre for Eurasian Studies, University of Bombay, says that India has done the right thing by not seeking a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the summit in Islamabad.
“ Contentious issues must be sorted out bilaterally without any third party intervention. SCO Summit is not the right platform for sorting out bilateral issues.’’
Belarus Being On Board SCO Is Very Important
Dr Deshpande said that Belarus’ entry as a member of the SCO is very important for the region. “ It is the first European country to have joined the SCO as it is a trusted partner of Russia.’’
India Must Have A Say In the SCO
He added that it is very important for India to have its say in the SCO. “ India should look at this region, particularly Central Asia and Iran, for its strategic interests.’’
