Senior officials of Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party concluded a two-day plenum in Hanoi on Tuesday, finalising nominations for the country’s next top leadership positions, party chief To Lam announced. As is customary in the tightly controlled political system, no names were released, with formal appointments expected at the upcoming five-yearly party congress scheduled for 19–25 January.
Lam said delegates “voted with a high level of support” for nominees to key positions, according to his closing remarks published on the party’s official website. He appeared to acknowledge his own nomination for a leadership post, thanking delegates in a carefully worded statement that analysts interpreted as confirmation of his frontrunner status.
Lam Poised for Second Term
Widely viewed as the leading contender to remain general secretary — Vietnam’s most powerful position Lam has consolidated influence since succeeding the late Nguyen Phu Trong in July 2024. A former public security minister, he has championed administrative reform, anti-corruption measures and major infrastructure expansion during his tenure.
Lam’s assertive leadership has reshaped the country’s political landscape, signalling both continuity and centralisation. His reappointment had been seen as all but certain earlier this year, though ambitions to merge the party and presidential roles — mirroring China’s governance model may have cooled following recent trade tensions with Washington. The United States imposed 20% tariffs on Vietnamese goods in August despite Hanoi’s earlier concessions.
Political Stability Boosts Markets
The announcement of the leadership nominations even without official names lifted investor confidence, pushing Vietnam’s benchmark stock index close to a record high on Tuesday morning. Analysts attributed the rally to optimism over political stability and the expectation that Lam’s policies will continue.
“Investors prize predictability, and Lam represents a continuation of current economic priorities,” one Hanoi-based economist said.
Factions and Possible Power Balances
Speculation is swirling in Hanoi over potential power-sharing arrangements among Vietnam’s top five leadership posts: general secretary, president, prime minister, parliament chair, and the standing member of the party’s secretariat.
The contest pits two major factions against each other — one aligned with Lam and the security apparatus, and another rooted in the military and its corporate network, including defence conglomerate Viettel. Observers say a leadership lineup excluding senior military figures would be highly unusual.
Army General Luong Cuong, the current president, could stay on or be replaced by Defence Minister Phan Van Giang, according to party insiders. However, the final decisions will rest with the Politburo’s elite circle, where last-minute shifts remain possible.
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, a seasoned political operator with roots in the security services, has survived several reshuffles and may do so again. Names circulating as potential successors include former central bank governor Le Minh Hung, deputy prime minister Nguyen Hoa Binh, and police general Luong Tam Quang.
Continuity and Caution
Party officials are also expected to weigh regional representation to preserve Vietnam’s traditional balance between northern and southern leadership, though northern figures have historically dominated top posts.
Despite uncertainties, Lam’s consolidation of control suggests Vietnam’s next leadership lineup will maintain the current trajectory a blend of cautious economic reform, assertive governance, and disciplined one-party rule designed to preserve stability at home and influence abroad.
with inputs from Reuters
