“Iran will remain a threat to Israel and US allies and its interests in the region well after the Gaza conflict,” that is what the US Intelligence Annual Threat Assessment says. It is an unclassified summary published annually since 2006 (with the glaring exception of 2020), and is self-advertised as providing “a public window into national security risks.
A major player in West Asia, the report says Iran will continue to arm and aid allies to threaten the United States and back groups like Hamas that seek to block a peace settlement between Israel and Palestinians.
Tehran will not get into a direct conflict with the US or Israel, the assessment notes, but will keep these countries engaged through proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Last year, Tehran tried to build bridges and assert its diplomatic influence in the region by improving ties with Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. It has used the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel to try and dissuade other countries in West Asia from warming up to the Jewish state.
Challenges
The report says Iran faces multiple political and economic challenges. There is widespread discontent that has surfaced in the form of protests over the past few years. This was clearly reflected in the recently concluded parliamentary elections, which reported a historically low turnout.
Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei has been in power since 1989 and despite discontent, remains unchallenged. But his death could challenge the very foundation of the Islamic Republic, the report says.
Economically, the country is in serious trouble with inflation expected to cross 40%, making it tough for people to survive and earn a livelihood. The currency has dropped 13% in the wake of Israel’s Gaza war.
“Iran’s economy continues to struggle amidst high inflation. Most wages are unable to keep pace with the higher prices, leading to declines in households’ spending power,” the report said.
Add to that international sanctions, in place since 1979 when US Embassy personnel were taken hostage. Since then there have been sanctions on its nuclear weapons programme and its support for Hamas, Hezbollah and Palestinian Jihad.
Much of its trade happens with China or Russia. The dependence on China for oil exports is likely to take a hit as Beijing is in an economic slowdown, which many analysts say, will reduce the demand for oil.
Military
Iran’s approach to war – both conventional and unconventional — is likely to pose a serious threat to US interests in the region, the report warns. Iran upping its military capabilities and acquiring new conventional weapon systems, such as advanced fighter aircraft, helicopters, and main battle tanks, could prove to be a problem for allies in the region.
