In the second edition of Strat Talk, Tilak Devasher, one of the world’s foremost experts on Pakistan — having served there and focused intensely on it during his stint with the Research and Analysis Wing — says he has never seen the country in as bad a shape as it is today.
“Topping it all off is a crisis in leadership,” says Devasher, who’s a Member of the National Security Advisory Board, and the author of four superlative books on Pakistan/Afghanistan. Whether it is the civilian or military leadership, “I’ve not seen such a lack of understanding, vision or courage, to understand the problems, to know what needs to be done, and have the courage to do it, and they’re all kicking the can down the road,” he said.
There’s obviously a major security crisis as well, both in Khyber Pakthunwa and Balochistan, and Sindh is likely to be next. Not due to separatism, but over the growing issue of water, which in turn is already leading to social unrest and protests, he said.
Then, the fact that most of the fatalities in the recent spike in terror attacks were security personnel shows that the army has lost the “capability, or capacity, or even the will, to do anything about it,” he said. The escalating row with the Taliban in Afghanistan doesn’t help.
There’s also a political crisis, with Imran Khan refusing to talk to the Sharifs, and the army ostensibly staying out, which has led to a total lack of governance.
And then of course, there’s an economic crisis, due to the fact that it “consumes more than it produces.” Pakistan has the dubious distinction of being one with the maximum number of IMF bailouts in the world.
So what is Pakistan’s global status at the moment?
Can it continue to ‘appease’ the U.S. by handing over a terrorist or two at regular intervals?
Is New Delhi behind the mystery killings of terrorists involved in attacks on Indian interests?
What does the growing apathy over Kashmir among common Pakistanis mean for the all powerful army? Is the Army losing its credibility and hence its influence in the country? What is the festering issue over the Durand line with Afghanistan?
Watch the full show to get answers to those questions and much more from an intelligence veteran who’s spent several decades studying and understanding Pakistan.
