As South Korean President Lee Jae Myung prepares for his first summit with US President Donald Trump next week, he is likely to face renewed pressure to increase Seoul’s financial contribution towards the upkeep of American troops stationed on the Korean peninsula, with security expected to dominate the agenda.
Left largely out of the frantic trade talks that culminated in an unwritten deal last month, questions over the future of the South Korea-US alliance and the approach to nuclear-armed North Korea will be a key part of the White House discussions, officials and analysts said.
‘Trump Clearly Wants More’
A thorny issue for Lee may be Trump’s push for Seoul to pay significantly more for the 28,500 American troops stationed in South Korea as a legacy of the 1950-1953 Korean War.
A US official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said a key area of focus would be so-called burden sharing, and Trump is expected to push the South Koreans for more.
Victor Cha, of Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Seoul is providing over $1 billion a year to support the US troop presence and also paid to build the largest US base overseas, Camp Humphreys.
“But President Trump clearly wants more,” Cha said, noting his past calls for Seoul to pay $5 billion or even $10 billion. “He wants defence spending closer to 5% of GDP for all allies, South Korea is currently at 3.5%.”
Removing Troops From South Korea
While no decisions have been made, there are discussions within the Pentagon about removing some US troops from South Korea, the US official said.
To head that off, some at the Pentagon are trying to re-focus the alliance towards the threat posed by China.
While a lot will depend on Seoul’s willingness, the US official said the desire was to discuss in broad terms how the alliance, and US forces in South Korea, could be used to counter China.
That could bring more headaches for Lee, who has expressed full support for the US alliance but vowed to take a balanced approach between Washington and Beijing.
General Xavier Brunson, commander of US Forces Korea (USFK), said this month it was not a foregone conclusion that South Korea would be involved with any conflict over Taiwan, which China claims as its own.
Solving ‘Bigger Problems’
However, he said there should be a recognition that nothing happens in the region in isolation and US troops in South Korea could be needed to “solve bigger problems.”
Asked about more such “strategic flexibility” South Korea’s foreign ministry said it was difficult to predict USFK operations in a hypothetical situation.
“However, the operation of the USFK is carried out under close consultation and communication between South Korea and the United States,” a spokesperson said in a statement to Reuters.
Declaring that US forces in South Korea have multiple missions could degrade their primary focus of deterring and defeating a North Korean attack, said Bruce Klingner, a former US intelligence analyst now with the Mansfield Foundation.
“The more blatant the depiction of USFK as having an anti-China mission increases the likelihood that China will apply coercive pressure or retaliate economically against South Korea, as it did after Seoul deployed the US THAAD missile defence system (in 2017).”
North Korea Issues
Lee and Trump are likely to see eye to eye on North Korea, with both open to engaging its leader Kim Jong Un, and the US president frequently casting himself as a global peacemaker.
However, Pyongyang has rebuffed attempts to revive the unprecedented diplomatic engagement seen in Trump first term and doubled down on its deepening military, economic, and political ties to Russia.
“I doubt much substance will be said on North Korea beyond committing to diplomacy and reiterating a goal of denuclearization,” said Jenny Town, of the Washington-based 38 North programme, which monitors North Korea.
Lee told Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper on Thursday his administration would lay the groundwork to ultimately dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme, through talks with Pyongyang and close cooperation with Washington.
North Korea has repeatedly said its nuclear weapons are not open for negotiation.
Nuclear Aspirations
South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun told parliament this week South Korea could also try to use the summit to win approval to reprocess or enrich its own nuclear materials.
Despite talk from some South Korean officials about the need to attain “nuclear latency”, or the means to quickly build an atomic arsenal, Cho insisted reprocessing would be only for industrial or environmental purposes.
“Talking about our own nuclear armament or growing potential nuclear capabilities … is not helping at all with negotiations really,” he said, against a backdrop of growing domestic support for South Korea to develop its own nuclear arsenal.
Daryl Kimball, executive director of the US-based Arms Control Association, said there was no practical “industrial or environmental” need for South Korea to start reprocessing, nor for a domestic uranium enrichment capability for its energy programme.
Both activities are prohibited under the current US-South Korea Agreement for Nuclear Cooperation because they could be used to produce nuclear bombs, he said.
“The foreign minister’s claims about the purpose of his government’s interest are hardly reassuring,” he said, adding: “Too many South Korean politicians are flirting with the idea of their country acquiring the nuclear weapons option.”
(With inputs from Reuters)
