Japanese lawmakers will today decide on the continuation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba following a setback to his his coalition last month.
Snap Poll
Ishiba had called the snap poll after coming into office on October 1.
LDP And Coalition Partner Komeito
He is expected to prevail as his Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito won the biggest block of seats in the election, while losing the majority held since 2012.
Prospect Of A Fragile Minority Government
Even so, Ishiba faces the prospect of running a fragile minority government as protectionist Donald Trump regains control.
Tensions have risen with rivals China and North Korea and public pressure mounts at home to tackle a cost of living crunch.
Position Taken By Democratic Party
The small opposition Democratic Party for the People has emerged as a kingmaker after the election.
It has declined to enter a formal coalition with the LDP but ha said that it may offer support on a policy-by-policy basis.
DPP Says It Would Not Vote For Ishiba
Ishiba may face challenges in pushing through his policy agenda.
DPP chief Yuichiro Tamaki told reporters on Friday that party members would not vote for Ishiba at Monday’s special parliamentary session.
“Until now the LDP and Komeito have been able to push their policies through and they are no longer able to do that,” Tamaki said.
He added that the LDP and Komeito have to listen to the opposition parties.
Tamaki To Consult His Party
Tamaki said he would consult his party over whether to remain its leader after admitting to an extra-marital affair first put out in a tabloid magazine.
Noda Also A Choice For The PM’s Post
Former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, the head of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party, the biggest party after the LDP, is also expected to be among the candidates put forward as premier.
If, as expected, no candidate wins a majority initially, a runoff between the top two contenders will determine the winner.
Such a runoff has not been held in 30 years, underlining the fragility of Japan’s leadership.
Challenges Ahead
Japan will hold elections next year for the less-powerful upper house.
In the upper house, the ruling coalition’s slim majority could also be at risk if Ishiba is not able to revive public trust in his administration.
His administration has been roiled by a scandal over unrecorded donations to lawmakers.
Supplementary Budget
The most imminent challenge he faces is compiling a supplementary budget for the fiscal year through March.
He under pressure from voters and opposition parties to raise spending on welfare and measures to offset rising prices.
Ishiba’s International Engagements
Ishiba also has a slate of international engagements, including a summit of the Group of 20 big economies in Brazil November 18 and 19.
He is trying to arrange a stopover in the United States around the G20 summit to meet Trump.
Some Japanese officials fear that Trump might again hit Tokyo with protectionist trade measures and revive demands for it to pay more toward the cost of stationing U.S. forces in the country.
These issues were largely smoothed over in Trump’s first term, from 2017 to 2021, by the close ties between the president and Japan’s then-premier, Shinzo Abe – a bond Ishiba seems keen to re-establish.
