India is hoping to play a more substantive role in trying to bring peace between Russia and Ukraine, following NSA Ajit Doval’s meeting last week with President Putin in St Petersburg.
Little has emerged in the public domain from that meeting, but StratNews Global learns that India has been conveying messages between Moscow and Kyiv that could hopefully advance the prospects for peace. What’s more, Washington is also in the know.
To put it in perspective, Modi met Putin outside Moscow on July 8, a meeting which by all accounts went off well. The joint statement issued at the end made an interesting point:
“The Leaders highlighted the importance of the security dialogue at the level of NSAs and NSCs … and welcomed regular interactions which facilitated greater strategic understanding and coordination between the two countries on bilateral as well as global and regional issues of mutual concern.”
Buried in the second last para ran the line … “India and Russia as major powers will continue to strive for global peace and stability in a multipolar world.”
A little over a month later, Modi was in Kyiv to meet President Zelenskyy and note these words from the joint statement:
“Prime Minister Modi reiterated the need for sincere and practical engagement between all stakeholders to develop innovative solutions that will have broad acceptability and contribute towards early restoration of peace. He reiterated India’s willingness to contribute in all possible ways to facilitate an early return to peace.”
In both cases, the Modi visit came after consultations and visits at various levels between officials and ministers of all three countries.
NSA Ajit Doval was present at the Modi-Putin meeting and the Modi-Zelenskyy meeting. At last week’s call on Putin, note Doval’s words:
“He (Modi) wanted me to come specially and personally and brief you on the talks. The talks were in closed format; it was only the two leaders. He (Zelenskyy) had two people with him and I happened to be with the prime minister. So I attended that, I witnessed that conversation.”
Exactly what was conveyed may be known only later, but when Modi travels to the US next week, he is expected to brief President Biden on what transpired, what peace proposals if any were discussed or raised, and what if any, is the way forward.
Biden may have already been briefed by the Ukrainians and may have got some word from Moscow on these issues. But getting it directly from the man who may have conveyed multiple messages and even ideas to Moscow and Ukraine, a man who is seen to enjoy the confidence of Putin certainly, and to a fair degree even of Zelenskyy, is another matter altogether.
While China has been engaged in some peace manoeuvres, neither Biden (nor his successor) may want to see strategic rival Xi Jinping with the halo of peacemaker. Modi, in that sense, may be more acceptable.
And at no point has India talked of mediating, it’s a bad word in Indian diplomacy given the connotations with Kashmir. India is lending its good offices, conveying messages, making it clear that this war can only be ended by those who are fighting it.
