Richard Rossow is a senior adviser and holds the Chair on India and Emerging Asia Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington, D.C.
Vienna-based Velina Tchakarova is one of Europe’s foremost Geopolitical and Strategic Analysts.
In this interview, they discuss how the US and Europe view Trump’s second term in the White House.
The US View
Challenges in Trade Relations
- Trade wars and friction, e.g., tariffs on steel and aluminum.
- Tensions between “Make in India” and “Make America Great Again.”
- Focus on increasing U.S. exports in oil, defense, and strategic products to India.
- Frictions from India’s trade retaliation and tariffs.
Opportunities in Strategic Collaboration
- Aligning against China on military, trade, and technology.
- Potential focus on defense interoperability and co-development of technologies.
- Collaborations in space technology, reducing export controls for mutual benefits.
Trump’s Style and Policy Dynamics
- Unpredictable announcements; policy shifts often initiated via social media.
- Core themes: confronting China, promoting U.S. manufacturing, creating jobs.
- India adapting well despite unpredictability; areas like manufacturing investment seen as complementary.
Geopolitical Priorities
- Continuation of a confrontational approach toward China.
- Potential softening or deal-making with China for trade concessions.
- Mixed prospects with Russia and Iran; advisors may resist Trump’s accommodative stance.
The European View
Geopolitical Hotspots
- Focus on the war in Ukraine, Israel-Hamas conflict, and Indo-Pacific tensions.
- Concerns about South China Sea militarization and Taiwan security.
Reaction to Trump’s Policies
- European leaders divided; some may support Trump’s approaches (e.g., populist leaders like Meloni and Orban).
- Concerns about NATO and EU-US relations due to Trump’s previous criticisms.
- Preparations by EU working groups to address potential policy shifts.
Economic and Defence Implications
- Economic challenges: inflation and stress on European economies.
- Trade tensions between the U.S. and EU, with a focus on defense spending targets (up to 5% of GDP).
Rise of Populism
- Trump viewed as part of a global trend of populist movements.
- Similar foreign policy shifts seen in populist movements worldwide.
Key Takeaways
- Trump’s focus likely to be on economic gains, strategic competition with China, and re-establishing manufacturing.
- Europe is preparing for a more transactional and less predictable U.S. policy under Trump.
- Both regions anticipate increased tensions in defense and trade, with Trump’s policies influencing global geopolitics.
