As Donald Trump’s election win brings the prospect of talks to end Russia’s war in Ukraine closer, Kyiv is battling to put itself in the strongest position for any negotiations. This includes securing more arms and holding out on the battlefield.
A senior Ukrainian official said the next four to five months would be pivotal. It would signal how Trump’s return to the White House is focusing minds in Kyiv on a possible end game in the war. Trump, who will be sworn in as U.S. president on Jan. 20, has said he will end the war quickly but has not said how.
“This winter is a critical point … I hope the war is drawing to an end. Right now we will define the positions for both sides on negotiations, the starting positions,” the official told Reuters, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive security issues.
Officials are waiting to see who Trump picks for his top security and defence jobs for clues on how he will shape Ukraine policy. He has ruled out ex-secretary of state Mike Pompeo, seen in Kyiv as pro-Ukrainian.
Manpower Stretched Amid War
Russia is advancing at its fastest rate since 2022 despite taking heavy losses, and Ukraine said last week it had clashed with some of an estimated 11,000 North Korean troops deployed to Russia’s Kursk region.
Stretched by manpower shortages, Ukrainian forces have lost some of the ground they captured in an August incursion into Kursk that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said could serve as a bargaining chip.
Ukraine’s hobbled energy system is keeping the lights on for now as winter sets in, but the threat of another big Russian attack on the grid remains.
Drones attack Kyiv almost nightly although Russia may not want to alienate the incoming Trump team by destroying the system.
Trump-Zelenskyy Call
After holding what he said was an “excellent” phone call with Trump late on Wednesday, Zelenskyy said the next day that he was convinced a rapid end to the war would mean Kyiv accepting big concessions.
“If it’s just fast, it means losses for Ukraine. I just don’t yet understand how this could be in any other way. Maybe we do not yu7yuknow something, do not see,” Zelenskyy said.
He also criticised talk of a ceasefire without Ukraine first receiving robust security guarantees that would prevent Russia launching an even bigger offensive later on.
“It’s a very scary challenge for our citizens: first a ceasefire, then we’ll see. Who are you? Are your children dying?” Zelenskyy said in comments apparently aimed at Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who had proposed a ceasefire.
The Kyiv official said it felt “less likely” after Trump’s victory that there would be a NATO invitation for Ukraine and acknowledged there was a risk Trump would scale back aid.
“I hope the Biden administration will try to avoid this risk by accelerating the speed of (its) help,” the official said.
Ukraine’s Support For Harris
The Kremlin said on Friday that President Vladimir Putin was ready to discuss Ukraine with Trump, but that this did not mean Moscow’s war demands had changed.
Putin set out his terms for an end to the war in June: Ukraine would have to drop its NATO ambitions and withdraw its troops from all of the territory of four regions claimed by Russia, something Kyiv sees as akin to capitulation.
Ukraine’s public is sceptical Russia is interested in talks, but its central demand if they happen is for Ukraine to receive proper security guarantees, said Anton Grushetskyi, executive director of the KIIS pollster.
Ukrainians leaned towards wanting Democrat Kamala Harris to win the election, but frustration at the reluctance of outgoing President Joe Biden’s administration to increase support meant they were increasingly open to a gamble on Trump, he said.
“People are very disappointed that behind the very strong words of the Biden administration the real steps were much weaker, especially over the last year,” he said.
Bleak Mood
Trying to strengthen his hand in September, Zelenskyy outlined a “victory plan” to Biden, reiterating his request for permission to strike military targets deeper in Russia, receive a NATO invitation and obtain more potent weapons.
The plan, he said, was needed to compel Russia to the negotiating table in good faith. There has been little sign of a breakthrough on any of the plan’s five points.
“The mood in Ukraine is pretty bleak. You can see the increasing frustration in Zelenskyy’s recent remarks,” a senior Kyiv-based diplomatic source said.
The Ukrainian official voiced scepticism that Biden would supply something significant to Ukraine, such as lifting the restriction on long-range strikes.
“Who is Biden now? He lost a lot of credibility. I hope he will be brave enough to do something. But I don’t have big hopes. It would be great. We are very grateful for his help. He did a lot, much more than we expected,” the official said.
(with inputs from Reuters)
