Russia-Ukraine War: Expect A Break For 2 Or 3 Years, Says Velina Tchakarova

Russia-Ukraine War And Trump

A limited ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war is in place after Donald Trump spoke to the presidents of Russia and Ukraine this week. What possibly lies ahead?

Trump wants a ceasefire and will pressure all sides to get what he wants by all means, says Vienna-based geopolitical strategist Velina Tchakarova. When it comes to getting the two sides to indirectly talk, Trump has already achieved more than what four years of Biden administration did, she told StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale.

He wants to sell it as a peace plan but in reality will get a ceasefire, she added. It’s the only deliverable in the short term but that’s a game changer, given the willingness on both sides to keep fighting.

Russia-Ukraine War: What Next?

Velina expects a ceasefire in the next three to six months. “Ukraine is not a priority for the Trump administration but Russia is. The Trump administration doesn’t see Russia as a strategic challenge but as an opportunity to weaken the modus operandi of the Dragonbear, to lure Russia away from China. The only strategic target of this administration is China. Ideologically, technologically, economically and militarily.”

So what’s Trump likely to do? The expectation is that the Russians could be offered recognition of Crimea, says Velina. She also expects Putin to be assured full control of Donbas. But there’s a question mark over Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, according to her.

All European states currently rely on Ukraine as the last resort of defense against Russia, argues Velina. They know for a fact that if Ukraine falls, there will be an incentive to create a scenario in which NATO membership, for instance, of countries like the Baltics, will be questioned, she reasons.

Putin may have miscalculated on many dimensions. For example, strength of the Russian army, Ukrainian response and Europe’s reaction. But he did count on gaining pole position in the systemic rivalry between the U.S. and China.

Velina expects a break of perhaps two or three years in the Russia-Ukraine war. After which the war goes beyond 2028 or 2030, depending on what she calls the agility of the Russian forces. The Russians learnt from every war they waged in the last 20 years. Now they have to draw lessons from this war, adapt accordingly, modernise and then strike back, she says.