Pakistani entities can always foment social unrest or major communal riots across the length and breadth of India, warns noted security and foreign policy expert Dr Abhinav Pandya.
He was replying to a question during a conversation on The GIST, on apprehensions that Pakistan could succeed in creating communal unrest in India.
Asked if such apprehensions are true, Dr Pandya said, “That’s quite true. In India, we are witnessing very high level of radicalization and communal polarization. The government has been very strict and very firm on security issues in the last 12 years. All kinds of appeasement policies and tactics used by previous governments have been completely abandoned. The present government has really exposed certain things like Waqf issues and brought radicalization matters to the fore. Because of those reasons, there are sharp communal fault lines. Some of the communal fault lines can be used by Pakistan. Pakistani terrorist and extremist groups have sleeper cells across the country and some of the Indian Islamist groups like PFI and Jamaat-e-Islami have robust ties across the border. With the help of social media and such coordinators, Pakistani entities can always foment social unrest or major communal riots across the length and breadth of the country.”
On Pakistan’s deafening silence on the rumored death of UN-designated terrorist,LeT Commander and mastermind of the Mumbai terror attack, Hafiz Saeed and the killing of his nephew and LeT terrorist, Abu Qatal, Dr Pandya said that it has been a practice and age-old tradition in Pakistan’s intelligence circuit to get rid of the deadwood- the terrorists who are of no use to the Pakistani establishment or who are creating trouble for their intelligence set up.
This expert who is also the founder of Udaipur based think-tank, The Usanas Foundation, said, “In these particular cases, a significant number of such Mujahideens, Jihadis have been eliminated over the last two years. Who is behind this- this is a grey area. It is difficult to say with some precision. But I can say that there is no doubt that some of these killings are being orchestrated at the behest of the Pakistani establishment….Secondly, they are facing a major global scrutiny from the terror watchdogs and they are already discredited and are facing isolation. They also need to get rid of some of these people who have become a burden. I don’t rule out the possibility of other countries also trying to eliminate these terrorists who have sabotaged the national security of many neighbours of Pakistan. Hafiz Saeed was behind the 26/11 attack and intelligence agencies do carry out such covert operations and get terrorists eliminated.”
Dr Pandya has authored three books, “ Radicalization in India and Exploration’, “ Terror Financing in Kashmir’ and “ Inside The Terrifying World of Jaish-e-Mohammad.’
He agrees that apart from Abu Qatal who was behind the June 9, 2024 attack on a bus carrying pilgrims in Jammu and Kashmir’s Reasi district, there have been mysterious killings of Pakistani terrorists wanted by India and others with alleged ties to terror outfits.
The expert said that a large number of terrorists killed in the last two years were those who were involved in sabotaging India’s national security interests. “ If they are meeting their end in such a manner, there is a strong possibility that some of the entities involved with the Indian establishment – they are quite expected to do this but I can’t say it with any concrete evidence. This is an established practice in the world of intelligence. The Americans and the Russians have done this. In the past, even Pakistanis have tried to eliminate terrorists who became a burden on them… They got many JKLF militants killed. Pakistan has always differentiated between good terrorists who are working against India like Lashkar-e- Taiba, Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, Jaish-e-Mohammed and bad terrorists who are working against the vital national interests of Pakistan, such as Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan, Balouch National Liberation Army and to some extent, ISKP also. Some of the terrorists that Pakistan tries to get rid are those bad ones.”
To a question on Jihadi forces in Pakistan revolting against the Pakistan State which over the years was investing in mass radicalization, he drew attention to Pakistan’s history and said, “ What is happening in today’s Pakistan was bound to happen. In an Islamic landscape where there is a very strong infrastructure for flourishing of radicalization, terrorist and extremist outfits, the State actually facilitated the growth of these entities. Now these terrorist organizations have grown so much that they want to completely overtake the State and they feel that their previous masters, that is the Pakistani Army is becoming the biggest hindrance between them and making Pakistan a purely Islamic State.
How has it helped Pakistan to differentiate between good terrorists and bad terrorists?
To this, the security expert said, “After the Pakistani Army realized that they have created these monsters, they certainly needed to keep these bad boys in control. When they became too powerful after 2007, the Pakistani State realized that they need to do something. The problem is that these groups, mostly Deobandi groups have a history which is older than that of Pakistan. They are primarily responsible for destroying the devastating the Sufis in that landscape and creating an extremist infrastructure for the Jihadis. Since they had a massive social clout, Pakistani establishment could not simply crush them. So, they offered to send them to Kashmir Jihad platform. Likewise, Afghan Taliban was a good terrorist and Pakistan Taliban was a bad terrorist. But after the withdrawal of the Americans , the TTP has become very powerful and has become a bid headache. So, all that strategy of good terrorists and bad terrorists seems to be failing.”
Asked if the TTP and Balochis who have become strong and powerful, are getting support from external actors, he said that the TTP boys are getting support from Afghan Taliban, “They are operating in the Haqqani stronghold in the Khyber Pakthunwa region. These clan related ties are also very critical when it comes to Afghanistan’s terror landscape. One reason why TTP has become very powerful is that it is getting support and facilitation from the Haqqanis and Afghan Taliban. The other reason is that Pakistan’s economy is in a bad shape. Pakistan’s Army has lost credibility among the masses. They are facing a major existential battle right now. They have used all kinds of devious methods to consolidate all their power over the Pakistani State. These things cannot last forever. The Balochis are getting support from Afghanistan State after the Taliban’s return to power. They have got access to some very high quality weapons. They have improved in tactics and morale but I suspect there is something major at play. They must be getting some help from some major external powers.”
What happens if the situation in Balochistan goes from bad to worse?
“In that case, I expect much more repression from the Pakistan State because you just mentioned the Pakistan Army Chief saying that Pakistan has to become a hard State. Given their track record, their Army will most likely resort to some very harsh and strong measures. The struggle will get worst. Balochis will face worst kind of future and the resistance will get really bad and I see that Pakistan will face some major existential crisis in future,” said Dr Pandya.
While convening a meeting of the Parliamentary Committee on National Security, days after Balouch militants hijacked a passenger train resulting in the death of 25 persons, Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir said that those who believe they can weaken Pakistan through terrorism should know that “we will unite and not only defeat them but also all their facilitators.”
Dr Pandya explained what keeps Masood Azhar ticking. “ He is the founder of Jaish-e-Mohammed which is a Deobandi extremist outfit with a very strong base in Pakistani society and clergy. Compared to Lashkar, their religious motivation, indoctrination levels and training are much superior. Masood Azhar is a very respected and scholarly figure in the Jihadist landscape of Pakistan. He has access to the right kind of ideological and material resources. Pakistani Army and the public support him. In terms of tactics, they are better than other organizations.”
After the Jaffer Express hijack in Balochistan region in which dozens were killed, Pakistan has claimed that it is India which is fanning terrorism in the country and destabilising the region. Reacting to this, Dr Pandya said that Pakistan’s survival and existence is at stake and they want to provoke an anti- India sentiment and want to convey that only the Pakistani Army can save them from India sponsored terror attacks.”
He argued that there may be other big powers behind these attacks. “ China is running the CPEC project in that area. Gwadar is most critical to China. India recently had a disengagement agreement with China. So, why would India stage such attacks to displease China because the biggest entity at stake in Balochistan is China’s vital strategic and geo-economic interests.”
On Balochi rebel groups joining hands with Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan and Afghan Taliban, he said that this may be some kind of a propaganda war just to show that Balochis are not nationalist freedom fighters.
To what extent are Pakistan based entities involved in radicalization of youth in India and Bangladesh, he said that Pakistan is certainly involved very significantly.
