Myanmar’s military has announced elections beginning December 28, spread across multiple phases into January, but the process is designed to preserve military control rather than transfer power, according to Dr Cchavi Vasisht, Associate Fellow at the Chintan Research Foundation
The military, which has ruled Myanmar directly or indirectly for more than seven decades, framed the vote as part of a roadmap released after the 2021 coup. That roadmap promised elections and reforms to the election commission. In practice, the system rests firmly on the 2008 Constitution, which guarantees the military 25 percent of parliamentary seats, giving it an effective veto over any constitutional change. Past attempts by the National League for Democracy to amend this framework failed for that reason.
The constitution also allows elections to be held in phases and only in selected areas. This provision is now central to the military’s plan. Polling will take place mainly in central regions under army control, while elections have been cancelled in at least 65 townships, mostly in border areas described as “unstable.” Many of these regions are controlled by ethnic armed groups that now run local administration, courts, and economic activity.
The playing field has narrowed further through restrictive party registration rules. High membership thresholds and financial requirements have excluded dozens of parties, including the NLD, effectively clearing the path for the pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party to retain power. A new election protection law has also introduced harsh penalties, including the death penalty, for opposing the process.
Despite questions over legitimacy, regional and global powers are expected to engage with the post-election government. Dr Vasisht argues that isolating Myanmar has previously pushed it closer to China, a scenario India and others want to avoid. Myanmar shares a long land and maritime boundary with India and sits at the junction of South and Southeast Asia, making disengagement costly.
Aung San Suu Kyi remains imprisoned, with no clear information about her health or location. While her past role in Myanmar’s political transition is acknowledged, her current influence is uncertain. Meanwhile, violence continues, ethnic conflicts persist, and instability is likely to remain a defining feature of Myanmar’s political landscape even after the vote. Watch the full interview to understand why Myanmar is important for India.
In a career spanning three decades and counting, Ramananda (Ram to his friends) has been the foreign editor of The Telegraph, Outlook Magazine and the New Indian Express. He helped set up rediff.com’s editorial operations in San Jose and New York, helmed sify.com, and was the founder editor of India.com.
His work has featured in national and international publications like the Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, Global Times and Ashahi Shimbun. But his one constant over all these years, he says, has been the attempt to understand rising India’s place in the world.
He can rustle up a mean salad, his oil-less pepper chicken is to die for, and all it takes is some beer and rhythm and blues to rock his soul.
Talk to him about foreign and strategic affairs, media, South Asia, China, and of course India.
