News trickling out of Myanmar says the military junta has renewed air strikes on rebel positions despite extending the ceasefire announced earlier this month, in the wake of the earthquake. Aid groups say more than 100 people have died in air strikes between April 2 and 18th, with an average of nearly 10 attacks from the air.
“The basis of the ceasefire was purely a show of humanity after the earthquake and not a political consensus or understanding between the Tatmadaw and ethnic rebel groups,” says Rami Desai, Distinguished Fellow at the India Foundation.
Based on her visit to Myanmar this month, she says that “the ceasefire took place due to a natural calamity. None of the groups would look good if they continued fighting. So this is more perception management.”
The perception management extends to the military junta, not blocking the movement of aid groups, even as they did nothing to help the civilian population under their control. Aid groups say the earthquake was largely in the junta-held areas of Mandalay, Sagaing, and the capital Naypyidaw.
The civil war, now in its fourth year, sees the country fragmented with over 33% of territory controlled by ethnic insurgents like the Arakan Army, the Kachin Independence Army, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, and so on. But most population centres remain in the junta’s hands.
From small beginnings, the Arakan Army has grown into a sophisticated and among the largest rebel groups. It dominates Rakhine state except Sittwe and Kyaukpyu that are junta strongholds.
“My assessment is that there are negotiations between the Arakan Army and the Chinese. They have cut a deal and resumed construction on Sittwe port. They’ve managed to get construction workers there with the promise of security,” Desai said.
Sittwe is important for India as it is crucial for the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit & Transport Project. Kyaukpyu, incidentally, has seen considerable Chinese investment.
While China’s economic footprint is visible all over Myanmar, from oil and gas pipelines to deep-sea ports, there is concern over the underground economy it has spawned ranging from drugs to cyber scams. In fact, Desai believes that this is where Indians are seen as preferable.
“People of Myanmar see across the border and see an expansion of their own communities, which, loosely, they might be. India has always had great relations with the people of Myanmar.”
But she warns that as the civil war intensifies, “There are going to be problems of famine, starvation, and the economy falling apart, which will drive some amount of migration towards India.”
As for the current narrative in India about fencing the border, she says, “Anybody who says that you should fence the border has never seen the borders because it’s not possible to plug it.”
She believes that border villages could help mitigate the security issues posed by the flight of refugees
“Alertness of the people who live on the borders is primary, because at the end of the day, whether it’s insurgency, whether it’s drug traffickers, they need a route to come in. They need certain safe houses and certain contact points.”
In other words, civil society should step in because, at the end of the day, they have the most to lose.
