By suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), India has sent a clear message: enough is enough. After decades of tolerating cross-border terrorism and diplomatic duplicity, New Delhi is finally putting hard leverage behind its words.
The 1960 treaty, which divides the Indus River system between India and Pakistan, was signed in a different world — one where trust was presumed, not weaponised. Uttam Kumar Sinha, Senior Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses and a leading scholar and commentator on transboundary rivers, climate change and the Arctic, notes that the treaty was never designed with an exit route. More importantly, because it predates the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (1969), debates about legality under international law are largely academic.
India’s decision to notify Pakistan of the suspension isn’t just symbolism. “It reflects a strategic rethink,” says Sinha. “You cannot keep honouring a treaty when the other side refuses to honour basic norms of behaviour.” The suspension recognises that the IWT’s spirit — mutual trust and goodwill — has long been dead.
That said, don’t expect overnight consequences. While India can now more aggressively harness the waters allocated to it under the treaty, actual disruption will take years of infrastructure buildup — more dams, more storage, smarter river management. India is playing the long game.
Sinha also notes that Pakistan’s water wars are more internal — Punjab vs. Sindh, not India vs. Pakistan.
The bigger picture? Sinha urges caution, but not paranoia, about China’s dam-building on the Brahmaputra. While China’s opaque practices are a legitimate concern, the smarter response is to strengthen India’s own water resilience.
In choosing to suspend the IWT, India isn’t just retaliating — it’s redefining the terms of engagement with a neighbour that has long taken its magnanimity for granted. This could mark the beginning of a new doctrine: where treaties are honoured not by habit, but by merit.
To get a clearer perspective of the various options, challenges and opportunities that India’s decision on the IWT offers, watch the full interview.
