Later this month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping of China will be in Russia for the BRICS summit. There’s speculation about a meeting between the two on the sidelines.
The Higher, The Better
Since the LAC standoff in Eastern Ladakh began in 2020, India and China have held over 50 rounds of military and diplomatic talks.
Higher the level of talks, the better it is because in China the decision maker is only one, says China specialist Jayadeva Ranade. Speaking to StratNews Global, Ranade said though Xi has avoided meeting Modi (since the LAC standoff), any meeting between the two would be a good step. It will at least indicate that the two countries are behaving in a mature fashion, he added.
India-China Ties Frozen
India has said unless China restores the status quo along the LAC, ties cannot be normalised. However, China keeps pushing for normalisation without pulling back at the LAC.
In terms of rotation of troops and deployment at ultra-high altitudes, China is feeling the pinch, says Ranade. In contrast, Indian troops are more battle-hardened. And I don’t see India going back on its pre-condition for normalisation of bilateral ties, he adds.
Chinese Economy Struggling
China’s export-driven economy, largely dependent on Western markets, is now facing headwinds. Exports have dropped nearly 30 per cent. Things are no better on the domestic front. Only three Chinese provinces have met their revenue targets; the rest have slumped, says Ranade. Despite his discomfort, Xi has had to allow giving living allowances to people.
China is now pushing very hard for access to the Indian market, which is big. And because of that maybe we are getting signals that there may be a conciliatory attitude by the Chinese, notes Ranade. “But on the ground, there’s been no change—no de-induction, no de-escalation, nothing of the sort.”
‘No Change In Objectives’
Ranade believes there has been no change in the Chinese endgame. “They are looking at Asia, the Indo-Pacific as their backyard.” China has upped its military and diplomatic pressure on Japan, the Philippines and on Vietnam.
On the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, Xi once again renewed his pledge to reunify Taiwan with the mainland. “There was no mention of peace in his speech even once. He has hardened his position within a year. So why should he change his position vis-à-vis India?”
China’s objectives are much larger; it wants to dominate the region and surpass the United States, feels Ranade. “It does not want India as a competitor and once they’ve dealt with us, the coast is clear.”
