There’s an unspoken question China’s President Xi is asking: does the US have the stomach for war with China? He’s probably yet to make up his mind but there’s little doubt his maneuvers in the South China Sea, backing Iran as it flexes muscle in the Persian Gulf and support for Russia in Ukraine, are designed to test and challenge President Biden.
“It underscores the point that the real contest is between the US and China,” says Jayadeva Ranade, head of the Centre for China Analysis & Strategy think tank. “China has the wealth, the military capability and the ambition. Will the Americans move to contain it or be content with number two or number three or even number four position? Between three to five years will be a hot time.”
Ranade was speaking with Nitin A. Gokhale, Editor-in-Chief of StratNews Global, at an event in Pune.
“What happens if a US warship bumps into a Chinese warship in the South China Sea? Given the internal situation in China today, what will Xi do? The amount of nationalism he has pumped into the people will come out, the PLA may say we are not ready but given the mood in the street, Xi will have little room for maneuver,” he warned.
China’s rise has implications for India-US and India-Russia relations, he said. There is a need for the US to reduce the pressure on Moscow, so it gives them the incentive to distance from Beijing.
“India,” he noted, “is keeping avenues open despite Western pressure.”
Right now the Russians need the Chinese, he acknowledged. They need capital and consumer goods from China to supply its Far Eastern region, which enables Putin to save on transport and other costs if the goods had to be sent from the western parts of the country. Despite tensions between Moscow and Beijing over other issues, they will hang together as long as it suits either.
