Street protests, mob lynching, chaos and a surge in anti-India sentiment. That describes the recent state of affairs in Bangladesh. The immediate trigger supposedly is the killing of a youth leader who was to contest the upcoming general elections.
Pious Hope
Fast moving changes; it’s a very sensitive and delicate time. That’s how Ramanathan Kumar, former officer of the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW), describes the current situation in Bangladesh.
Kumar, who has served in Bangladesh, goes back to July 2024 when student protests led to Sheikh Hasina’s ouster.
There have been tumultuous changes in the country since then. And not all for good. The Yunus-led interim government was installed with lofty promises. Cleaning up governance, bringing about electoral reforms and then holding free and fair elections. That was more of a pious hope, not borne out by reality, he says.
The reality is starkly different: instead of stability, a great deal of chaos on the streets. Add to that settling of political scores and attacks on minorities.
Pakistan Sniffs A Chance In Bangladesh
Radicalism that was largely kept in check during the Hasina years is visibly back. A strong current of anti-India sentiment sweeps the streets as the election approaches.
During Hasina’s rule, the exploitation of Bangladeshi territory to carry out acts prejudicial to the security of India had been denied in very large measure. In the past, Pakistan had exploited that space to the hilt to India’s detriment. The wheel has now changed. Pakistan now senses an opportunity. And this is where I think the great danger lies, says Kumar.
With the Awami League barred from contesting, the upcoming elections fall short of being called free and fair. The anti-Hasina sentiment is still fresh. And the next government may be tempted to adopt a confrontationist approach towards India to prove it’s different. Kumar finds that worrisome as it would undo many hard won gains of the past, such as connectivity, coastal navigation, etc.
The past must not be forgotten, warns Kumar. If India-Bangladesh relations go the India-Pakistan way, it will be a “tragedy for the whole region”.
Nitin A. Gokhale is a media entrepreneur, one of South Asia's leading strategic affairs analyst and author of over a dozen books so far on military history, insurgencies and wars.
Starting his career in journalism in 1983, he has since led teams of journalists across media platforms.
A specialist in conflict coverage, Gokhale has covered the insurgencies in India’s North-East, the 1999 Kargil conflict and Sri Lanka’s Eelam War IV between 2006-2009.
Gokhale now travels across the globe to speak at seminars and conferences, and lecture at India’s premier defence colleges. He has founded three niche portals, Bharatshakti.in, stratnewsglobal.com and Interstellar.news.
