The U.S. Labor Department will not release its monthly employment report for a second consecutive month, marking an unprecedented data blackout as the government shutdown enters its second month. Economists are warning that even when the government reopens, the October employment report may never be published due to lost data collection.
Data Blackout Clouds Economic Picture
The ongoing shutdown the longest in U.S. history has halted key economic data releases, leaving policymakers, investors and the public without reliable indicators of the economy’s health. Private research groups have stepped in to fill the gap, but experts say their data cannot match the scope or accuracy of official government statistics.
The employment report for September, originally scheduled for release on 3 October, is expected to be published soon after government operations resume. However, economists say the October report, due this Friday, may be impossible to compile. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was unable to conduct the required surveys while the government was closed.
Challenges in Collecting Employment Data
The monthly jobs report relies on two main surveys: the establishment survey, which measures nonfarm payrolls, and the household survey, which determines the unemployment rate. The former depends on forms completed by businesses, while the latter involves in-person interviews conducted by Census Bureau field workers.
“I don’t think the household survey data will be published,” said Ron Hetrick, a senior labour economist at Lightcast and former BLS supervisor. He noted that while companies likely continued tracking their payrolls, making the establishment survey partly recoverable, household data could not be retroactively gathered.
If the shutdown ends next week, data collection for November’s report could resume as normal, but economists expect major disruptions in trend analysis due to the missing month.
Inflation Data Also at Risk
The shutdown is also threatening other key economic reports. The White House has warned that the October consumer price index (CPI) a crucial measure of inflation might not be released for the first time ever.
“Anything that’s monthly, with a household survey, there’s likely to be a hole,” said Erica Groshen, a former BLS commissioner. “The unemployment rate that comes out of the Current Population Survey might not be available either.”
Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker outlined three possible options for the BLS: using delayed interviews referencing the original October survey week, shifting the reference week, or skipping October’s data entirely. Historically, the agency has preferred the first approach, but Walker warned that “the longer the shutdown lasts, the greater the risk that the BLS forgoes collecting October data.”
With the U.S. economy still under scrutiny amid inflation pressures and interest rate uncertainty, the absence of government data has left analysts navigating blind spots that could complicate future policy decisions.
(with inputs from Reuters)
