With 39 candidates in the fray, could Sri Lanka’s presidential elections slated for September 21 be headed for a run off? Indika Perera, a Sri Lankan lawyer and conflict resolution specialist and a director with Smart Foundation, a premier Think Tank, believes it is a distinct possibility.
Although there are 39 candidates, “it is clearly visible that three of them are leading,” says Perera, who works closely with top politicians and leaders across the world on issues like human rights, anti-corruption and project management. They are “the incumbent, Mr (Ranil) Wickremesinghe, the NPP (National People’s Power) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake, and the SJP (Samagi Jana Balawegaya) leader Mr Sajith Premadasa.”
All three have populist agendas, but “Wickremesinghe and Premadasa are more centre right, and the NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake is more centre-left,” he says.
But unlike earlier elections, none of the three candidates might get the 50 per cent vote share needed for a clear win, leading to a runoff, he adds. “ As per the constitution, if nobody get more than 50 per cent, the person who gets the most second and third preference votes get elected.”
When you look at their manifestos, it is clear that Sajith is more focused on welfare, promising more benefits, whereas Wickremesinghe is more focused on policy changes and reforms, and Dissanayake is more about anti-corruption and investing more on education and more relief to the common man and woman, notes Perera.
Asked about the growing popularity of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, he said it not that he is popular, but the others have become a bit unpopular. “People have so much of grievances against the others, that people might vote by omission for Anura Kumara,” feels Perera.
Of the 1.7 crore registered voters, more than 50 per cent are women, but none of the parties seem to have a specific a focus on women’s issues, he says, although some candidates have proposed a few policy changes on women related issues, like their job security, he said. “We have never targeted them as a specific group, even in parliament out of 225 members, there are less than 15 women,” he said. This despite Sri Lanka having Sirimavo Bandaranaike as the first woman Prime Minister in the world way back in 1960, and Chandrika Kumaratunga as Executive President from 1994-2005,
Unlike the last presidential elections of 2019, which had security as a main concern as it came soon after the Easter bombings, this time the issues are purely economic. The voters are more concerned about prices of essential goods, taxes, job security, imported goods like essential medicines etc, he said.
And given the people’s frustration and anger over the economic issues which they believe is mainly due to corruption, this time there could be a sort of an anti-establishment vote, he felt.
The masses —- and some of the candidates- are quite ignorant about the IMF conditions laid down after the economic meltdown, he said, leading to some populist anti-IMF rhetoric, but that would be counter productive, he said.
Are there any pro-China and pro-India lobbies at play in these elections? Will the candidates who have pledged to do away with executive presidency system live up to their word? How much weight will the Tamil and Muslim vote have? Why is there a lack of enthusiasm in this election in the northern part of the island?
To find out, watch the full interview.
