Sri Lanka began counting votes cast on Thursday in a snap general election that will decide if the Indian Ocean island nation will give its new leftist president greater legislative power to help the poor as it recovers from a financial meltdown.
Just over 17 million Sri Lankans were eligible to elect lawmakers to the 225-member parliament for a five-year term. A record 690 political parties and independent groups are in the fray across 22 electoral districts.
Counting of the paper ballots started shortly after polling closed on Thursday, with results expected on Friday. Voter turnout was about 65% at close of polling, the election commission said.
New President
The president, Marxist-leaning Anura Kumara Dissanayake, 55, was elected in September but his National People’s Power (NPP) coalition had just three of parliament’s 225 seats, prompting him to dissolve it and seek a fresh mandate.
People trickled into temples, schools and other public buildings being used as polling stations soon after polls opened.
“I think we are seeing the first signs of a positive political change in Sri Lanka after the president was elected and we should give him the chance to continue that change,” said Umeshi Perera, 32, who queued to vote in a Colombo suburb.
Expert Opinion
Analysts say Dissanayake’s coalition is expected to draw significant support, while a victory for a rival could lead to a policy logjam the country cannot afford.
A political outsider in a country dominated by family parties for decades, Dissanayake backs policies to fight poverty, such as bigger welfare measures, as well as battle graft.
Sri Lanka typically backs its president in general elections, especially if it is held soon after a presidential vote.
The president wields executive power but Dissanayake still requires a parliamentary majority to appoint a fully-fledged cabinet and deliver on key promises to cut taxes, support local businesses, and fight poverty.
He also has plans to abolish Sri Lanka’s contentious executive presidency but requires a two-third majority in parliament to implement it.
Economic Recovery
“This election is critical as it is a test for the NPP to get the numbers needed for the IMF package and to take forward promised governance, constitutional and economic reforms,” said Bhavani Fonseka, a researcher at Colombo’s Centre for Policy Alternatives.
The main challenger to Dissanayake’s coalition is the Samagi Jana Balawegaya party of opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, who favours a mix of interventionist and free-market economics.
Also a key contender is the New Democratic Front, backed by previous President Ranil Wickremesinghe.
Sri Lanka’s Economic Woes
A nation of 22 million, Sri Lanka was crushed by a 2022 economic crisis triggered by a severe shortage of foreign currency that pushed it into a sovereign default and caused its economy to shrink by 7.3% in 2022 and 2.3% last year.
Boosted by a $2.9 billion bailout programme from the International Monetary Fund, the economy has begun a tentative recovery, but the high cost of living is still a critical issue for many, especially the poor.
The country’s stocks and bonds have rallied sharply since the presidential election, with MSCI’s Sri Lanka’s equity index rallying some 35% and the defaulted 2030 sovereign dollar bond up 20% since then.
Tweaking IMF Targets
Dissanayake also aims to tweak targets set by the IMF to rein in income tax and free up funds to invest in welfare for the millions hit hardest by the crisis.
But investors worry his desire to revisit the terms of the IMF bailout could delay future disbursements, making it harder for Sri Lanka to hit a key primary surplus target of 2.3% of GDP in 2025 set by the IMF.
“We see this as a critical turning point for Sri Lanka. We expect a mandate to form a strong parliament, and we are confident the people will give us this mandate,” Dissanayake said after casting his vote.
“There is a change in Sri Lanka’s political culture that started in September, which must continue,” he said.
(with inputs from Reuters)
