Support us by contributing to StratNewsGlobal on the following UPI ID
ultramodern@hdfcbank

Strategic affairs is our game, South Asia and beyond our playground. Put together by an experienced team led by Nitin A. Gokhale. Our focus is on strategic affairs, foreign policy and international relations, with higher quality reportage, analysis and commentary with new tie-ups across the South Asian region.
You can support our endeavours. Visit us at www.stratnewsglobal.com and follow us on YouTube, Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
र 500 per month
र 1000 per month
र 5000 per year
र 10000 per year
Donate an amount of your choice
र 500 per month
Donate र 500 per month
Donate र 1000 per month
Donate र 5,000 per year
Donate र 10,000 per year
![]()
Donate an amount of your choice
Donate an amount of your choice
Australia, Indonesia Agree On New Security Pact
Australia and Indonesia have agreed on a new security pact committing them to consult each other if either faces a threat, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said in Sydney on Wednesday alongside President Prabowo Subianto.
Albanese, who accompanied Prabowo on a visit to an Australian naval base in the city, said the treaty was a major extension of previous security deals, and commits to regular security dialogue between leaders.
“If either or both countries’ security is threatened, to consult and consider what measures may be taken either individually or jointly to deal with those threats,” he said.
Indonesia’s Commitment to Close Ties
Prabowo told reporters that the treaty committed to close cooperation between the neighbours in defence and security fields.
“Our determination is to maintain the best of relationships in order to enhance and guarantee security for both of our countries,” he said.
Indonesia has a non-aligned foreign policy, pledging to befriend any country without joining any military bloc.
Treaty Expected in 2026
Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong said in a statement the treaty was expected to be signed next year. It was modelled on a 1995 security agreement between the two countries, she added.
The 1995 deal was withdrawn in 1999, after Australia led a United Nations peacekeeping force in East Timor, which was plunged into violence as it sought independence from Indonesia.
Balancing Regional Relationships
Australia has recently sought to boost defence ties with its neighbours, striking a mutual defence treaty with Papua New Guinea to its north last month.
Unlike the PNG treaty, the Indonesia agreement does not commit to acting to meet common danger, said Euan Graham, a senior analyst for defence strategy at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
Albanese could show he had put the Indonesia relationship back on track, while for Prabowo it was “classic balancing behaviour”, showing he was keeping Australia happy if concerns were raised that Indonesia was tilting too much towards Russia or China, he added.
(With inputs from Reuters)
China-Linked Hackers Targeted Australia’s Telecom, Warns Spy Chief
Australia’s spy chief said on Wednesday that the hackers linked to the Chinese government and military had targeted the country’s telecommunications systems and critical infrastructure, cautioning that a sabotage attack could seriously harm the nation’s economy.
Cost Of Cyber Sabotage
The Australian Security Intelligence Organisation’s director general of security, Mike Burgess, told a business conference in Melbourne that espionage was estimated to have cost Australia A$12.5 billion ($8.1 billion) last year, including the loss of A$2 billion in trade secrets and intellectual property.
Burgess highlighted the threat of cyber sabotage, describing the activities of the Salt Typhoon and Volt Typhoon Chinese hacking groups, which he said were “hackers working for Chinese government intelligence and their military”.
Salt Typhoon had not only penetrated U.S. telecommunications systems in a strategic spying operation but also “have been probing our telecommunication networks here in Australia too,” he said.
Volt Typhoon had intention to disrupt, he said, compromising U.S. critical infrastructure to pre-position for potential sabotage.
“We have seen Chinese hackers probing our critical infrastructure as well,” he added.
Impact of Hacking
Burgess warned of the potential impact on the community of widespread telecommunications disruption, including to banks and transport, and through cut-off water supplies and power.
“I assure you; these are not hypotheticals – foreign governments have elite teams investigating these possibilities right now,” he said.
Other potential scenarios included an Australian company being crippled as a trade competitor, or causing panic during an election, he added.
Chinese officials made multiple complaints to the Australian government and private sector about ASIO whenever he spoke publicly about China, Burgess said last week during a speech at the Lowy Institute in Sydney. “It won’t stop my resolve,” he said.
(With inputs from Reuters)
Vietnam Eyes Tariff Cuts As US Seeks Deficit Cut In Trade Deal
Vietnam aims to sign a trade agreement with the United States soon, Deputy Prime Minister Bui Thanh Son said on Wednesday as a fresh round of talks begins in Washington.
In October, the two countries agreed to finalise a trade deal within weeks that would maintain U.S. tariffs of 20% on its imports of Vietnamese goods, but exempt some unspecified products from the new duty imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump in August.
Reducing Trade Deficit
Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Michael DeSombre, told the conference that the trade deal should rebalance commercial flows between the two countries, reducing the U.S. deficit with Hanoi, which is the largest after China and Mexico.
Vietnam has recorded a $111 billion trade surplus with the U.S. in the first 10 months, likely setting a new annual record, according to Vietnamese data.
Talks On Exemption List
A Vietnamese delegation led by Trade Minister Nguyen Hong Dien is in Washington this week for a new round of talks with U.S. officials to work on finalising the trade agreement, the Vietnamese trade ministry said on its web portal.
According to the sources, negotiations would focus on identifying Vietnamese items that could be exempted from U.S. tariffs, such as coffee, and on the scope of the preferential access to the Vietnamese market that Hanoi has pledged for U.S. products, such as cars and farm goods.
The Vietnamese side aimed to finalise the deal ideally after the U.S. Supreme Court decides on the legality of U.S. tariffs imposed by Trump, and possibly by December.
Son urged U.S. businesses at a conference on Wednesday to support Vietnam’s efforts to set up the high-level meeting and to encourage Washington to recognise Vietnam as a market economy and lift its restrictions on the export of high-tech products, such as advanced semiconductors.
(With inputs from Reuters)
America Returns to Central Asia
The last time all five Central Asian leaders met a U.S. president in Washington was never.
That changed on November 6, when the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan gathered in the American capital for the tenth C5+1 summit – the official dialogue between the United States and the five post-Soviet republics.
“It’s the first time the region’s leaders travel to Washington for a summit with President Trump carrying a diverse agenda that extends beyond trade topics,” The Moscow Times reported.
Trump, in his signature style, declared the meeting a “new chapter” in U.S.–Central Asia relations. He promised “fantastic numbers” and announced that Uzbekistan would invest over $100 billion in the American economy over the next decade—a figure about equal to the country’s GDP.
Whether that number was accurate or not, behind the flourish was a more serious shift.
For years, U.S. engagement with Central Asia tended to be reactive and security-led. Now, the focus is economic. The State Department’s joint statement emphasised trade, investment and cooperation on critical minerals — signalling a strategic effort to diversify supply chains that have long been dominated by China.
Central Asia is suddenly valuable.
Kazakhstan is among the world’s leading uranium producers, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan hold rare-earth deposits, and Turkmenistan’s gas reserves make it a candidate for energy exports to Europe.
The summit’s agenda also featured discussions of the Trans-Caspian, or “Middle Corridor”—a route linking Central Asia to Europe via the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus, bypassing Russia.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced deals spanning aviation, agriculture and resource processing: Uzbekistan will buy 22 Boeing aircraft, import American soybeans and meal, and collaborate with U.S. firms on rare earths and energy. Trump said these multi-billion-dollar projects would create jobs for Americans and deepen economic ties.
The meeting also fits a broader pattern: Central Asia is being courted not just by the U.S., but by other major powers.
India participates in two distinct regional frameworks that include the Central Asian republics: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and its own India–Central Asia, or “India + C5,” dialogue.
The SCO, which also includes China, Russia and Pakistan, serves as a broader platform for a multipolar world order, while the India + C5 format is a more focused partnership between New Delhi and the five Central Asian states — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
In June, India hosted the 4th India–Central Asia Dialogue in New Delhi. India and the five republics agreed to expand cooperation in rare earth exploration, digital infrastructure and the International North–South Transport Corridor linking India to Central Asia via Iran’s Chabahar port. They also reaffirmed a joint stance against terrorism and pledged deeper financial and infrastructural linkages.
In a new phase of global competition driven by supply chains and resources rather than ideology, this renewed attention offers fresh leverage to Central Asian nations.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted trade routes and exposed the risks of over-dependence on Moscow. China remains the dominant investor, but concerns about debt and dependency are rising. Having both Washington and New Delhi in the mix expands options and strengthens bargaining power.
Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev was especially enthusiastic, calling Trump “a president of peace” and suggesting only he could help end the war in Ukraine. His exuberant praise indicated that Tashkent is positioning itself as Washington’s gateway to Central Asia.
With its focus on deals, not lectures, the summit marked a clear departure from previous U.S. administrations that emphasised governance and human rights.
Geopolitically, the timing works in America’s favour. Russia’s grip on Central Asia has loosened since Kyiv, while China’s growing clout has stirred some pushback in the region.
However, as AsiaNews pointed out, the path to deeper U.S. involvement remains uncertain. The countries of the region still depend heavily on Russian trade routes and Chinese financing, while Washington’s promises have yet to materialise into sustained engagement. The article noted that “Central Asia has often been treated as a secondary theatre of U.S. foreign policy” and that whether this summit marks a true strategic shift or another short-lived initiative remains to be seen.
Central Asia is landlocked. Its main transit and energy routes still run through either Russia or China. The much-discussed Trans-Caspian corridor remains expensive and underdeveloped. Building the infrastructure and creating the investment climate to support large-scale cooperation will take years. Additionally, corruption, weak institutions and opaque legal systems remain obstacles to serious American investment.
India faces similar challenges. The New Delhi dialogue produced promising declarations, but trade volumes remain tiny—under US$2 billion annually. Cabinet ministers admitted logistics and infrastructure continue to lag.
But India’s strategy appears more steady and development-centred compared to Trump’s bold, rapid and deal-driven attitude.
Russia and China, meanwhile, are watching closely. Washington’s move adds a third player into what was a binary game — and for the Central Asians, that is an outcome in itself.
If Washington can translate promise into mining ventures, logistics hubs, transport corridors and more transparent investment regimes, it could shift the balance in the region.
But Trump’s grand announcements often outpace delivery, and Central Asian leaders know the difference between press-release figures and hard cash.
Even so, the symbolism matters. Hosting all five Central Asian presidents in Washington was itself a message—that geography no longer guarantees Russian dominance.
India’s parallel outreach indicates the outlines of a multipolar tussle shaping the region’s future.
Central Asia’s rulers, long adept at balancing great-power interests, are unlikely to pick sides. Their aim is clear: secure as much investment, technology and political cover as possible from all available partners.
In private, Central Asian diplomats say they welcome the competition. “It keeps everyone honest,” quipped one Kazakh official to a regional outlet. “When China builds a railway, Russia lowers its tariffs, and the U.S. offers an investment fund—it’s good for us.”
Modi Visit To Bhutan: Bilateral Ties Turbocharged By Hydro-Power
India and Bhutan reinforced their longstanding partnership with the commissioning of the 1,020 MW Punatsangchhu-II Hydroelectric Project, inaugurated jointly by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and His Majesty King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck in Thimphu.
The ceremony was held in the presence of the sacred Holy Relics of Lord Buddha and marked another step forward in cooperation in the hydro-power sector, which remains the foundation of their bilateral engagement.
Fully funded by India through a mix of grants and soft loans, Punatsangchhu-II raises Bhutan’s total installed capacity by 40 percent. The electricity generated will support Bhutan’s domestic demand and be exported to India, contributing to regional energy security and development in India’s northeastern states.
The two governments also decided to resume construction on the 1,200 MW Punatsangchhu-I Hydroelectric Project, underscoring their continued commitment to collaborative energy generation.
During the visit, both sides signed MoUs to strengthen cooperation across sectors:
- Renewable Energy Cooperation, covering solar, wind, biomass, green hydrogen, and energy storage, as well as capacity building and technology transfer.
- Health and Medicine, providing for collaboration in drugs, diagnostics, maternal and child health, traditional medicine, disease prevention, telemedicine, and research.
- Mental Health, between Bhutan’s PEMA Secretariat and India’s NIMHANS, to develop in-country training and research programs for mental health professionals.
India announced a Rs 4,000 crore line of credit, allocation of land in Varanasi for a Bhutanese temple and guest house, and the establishment of an immigration check post at Hatisar across Gelephu to improve cross-border mobility.
Ahead of the visit, Bhutanese Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay noted that the ongoing Global Peace Prayer Festival, led by the King, was being supported by the Government of India. During the visit, His Majesty offered condolences and led prayers for the victims of the terror attack in Delhi.
Prime Minister Modi expressed gratitude for Bhutan’s solidarity, stating that India would always remember the compassion shown by the Bhutanese people at a time of national grief.
India and Bhutan have developed five major hydroelectric projects to date including Chukha (336 MW), Kurichhu (60 MW), Tala (1,020 MW), Mangdechhu (720 MW), and Punatsangchhu-II (1,020 MW), with Punatsangchhu-I (1,200 MW) under construction.
A joint vision for future energy partnership, agreed in 2024, provides a framework for further collaboration in hydro-power and renewable sectors, including participation by Indian private companies.
India continues to facilitate market access for Bhutan’s electricity exports through its power exchanges, while also supplying power to Bhutan during lean seasons.
Connectivity was another area of progress during the visit. Under a new intergovernmental MoU signed in September 2025, two cross-border rail links, Kokrajhar–Gelephu (69 km) and Banarhat–Samtse (20 km), will be developed at a combined cost of Rs 4,033 crore.
These will complement other recent initiatives, including the inauguration of an Immigration Check Post at Darranga, Assam (November 2024) and the Jogighopa Inland Waterway Terminal (January 2025), aimed at strengthening trade and transit networks.
The two countries had jointly launched the India–Bhutan SAT in November 2022 and inaugurated the South Asia Satellite Ground Station in Thimphu in 2019. In the fintech domain, Bhutan became the first country to adopt India’s BHIM-UPI system (2021) and implement the RuPay Card scheme (launched in 2019 and expanded in 2020), promoting seamless cross-border digital transactions.
India has also supported Bhutan’s Gyalsung National Service Programme, extending Rs 200 crore in grants and a Rs 1,500 crore concessional loan for academy infrastructure. In addition, India reaffirmed its support for the Gelephu Mindfulness City project, a royal initiative envisioned as a service-sector-led special administrative region to generate sustainable employment and regional connectivity.
India continues to be Bhutan’s largest trading partner, accounting for nearly 80 percent of Bhutan’s total trade. In 2024, bilateral trade stood at Rs 12,669 crore, with India’s exports to Bhutan amounting to Rs 9,538 crore and imports from Bhutan at Rs 3,131 crore. India provides Bhutan duty-free transit and exemption from export restrictions on essential commodities. A recent B2B agreement on fertilizer supply further strengthened agricultural cooperation.
Prime Minister Modi’s decision to proceed with the Bhutan visit despite the Delhi attack conveyed India’s steadfast commitment to its closest Himalayan partner and Neighbourhood First policy.
Suicide Blast Kills 12 Outside Islamabad District Court
At least 12 people were killed and several others injured in a suicide bombing outside a local court in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad on Tuesday, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said.
According to officials and state-run media, a powerful car bomb exploded at the entrance of the District Judicial Complex. The attacker, who attempted to enter the court building on foot, detonated the explosives near a police vehicle after waiting outside for 10 to 15 minutes, Naqvi told reporters at the site.
“We are investigating this incident from different angles. It is not just another bombing. It happened right in Islamabad,” the minister said.
A hospital source said some of the wounded were in critical condition. The blast occurred near the main entrance of the court complex, an area usually crowded with litigants and lawyers.
Videos circulating on social media showed a car engulfed in flames and thick smoke rising behind a security barrier, Dawn reported. State-run Pakistan Television (PTV) confirmed the explosion was a suicide attack, noting that “the bomber’s head was found lying on the road.”
No group has claimed responsibility for the attack so far.
The bombing came just hours after Pakistani security forces said they had repelled an overnight assault by armed militants on a cadet college in Wana, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province near the Afghan border.
Calling the Islamabad attack a “wake-up call”, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif described Pakistan as being “in a state of war.”
Posting on X, Asif wrote, “In this environment, it would be futile to hold out greater hope for successful negotiations with the rulers of Kabul.”
(With inputs from Reuters/agencies)
COP30 Puts ‘Resilience’ At The Core Amid Rising Climate Disasters
With typhoons tearing across Southeast Asia this week while areas of Jamaica and Brazil are still clearing debris from damaging storms, delegates at Brazil’s COP30 summit began grappling with how best to help the vulnerable withstand worsening weather and other climate extremes.
The topic of “adaptation” has grown more important as countries fail to rein in climate-warming emissions enough to prevent extreme warming linked to increasingly frequent weather disasters across the planet. A U.N. report last month said developing countries alone would need up to $310 billion every year by 2035 to prepare.
Where that money will come from is unclear. Ten of the world’s development banks, under pressure to free more cash for climate action, said on Monday they would continue to support the need.
“Lives, well-being, and jobs cannot be sustained where homes, schools, farms, and businesses are under threat from flooding, drought, or other climate extremes,” the banks said in a statement. Last year, they channeled more than $26 billion to low- and middle-income economies for adaptation.
Climate Financing
Separately, the director of a multipartner U.N. fund told Reuters it would soon announce a new impact bond aimed at raising $200 million by the end of 2026.
“The whole bond idea started exactly one year ago at the previous COP in Baku,” said Markus Repnik, who leads the Systematic Observations Financing Facility backed by the World Meteorological Organization, U.N. Development Programme, and U.N. Environment Fund. “We were getting the sense that things are going to change significantly from an international perspective.”
The fund, which also works to plug gaps in weather data for developing countries, hopes for country donations this week during COP30.
On Monday, Germany and Spain pledged $100 million to a different effort, the multilateral Climate Investment Funds (CIF), which is financing projects to boost climate resilience in developing countries.
The organization’s chief praised Brazil for featuring the issue as a COP30 focus, after years of seeing the issue slide down U.N. climate summit agendas.
“We’re really thrilled that, for the first time, adaptation is Day 1 and Day 2 of the COP,” CIF Chief Executive Tariye Gbadegesin told Reuters.
Rising Dangers and Costs
Vietnam estimated the initial costs from Typhoon Kalmaegi at nearly $300 million, a month after Typhoon Bualoi delivered $436 million in property damages. The Philippines is still tallying damages from Kalmaegi and the deadly Super Typhoon Fung-wong that hit this week.
Jamaica is looking at up to $7 billion in damages, or about a third of its GDP, from last month’s Hurricane Melissa, according to preliminary government estimates.
Beyond storms, there is damage from flooding, extreme heat, drought, and wildfires. More adaptation efforts are to be announced at COP30, from funding air conditioners and fans for people suffering extreme heat to AI mapping of soil conditions to improve crop yields.
Outside of national protections, about 86 million refugees – or three-quarters of the world’s total population displaced by conflict – are also exposed to extreme climate hazards, according to a UNHCR report on Monday.
U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell urged countries to agree on how to track progress to accelerate change in water, sanitation, health, and other areas.
“We now need to agree on the indicators that will help speed up implementation, to unleash its potential,” he said.
Adaptation Funding
Attracting private money to the cause can be tough. Resiliency projects are less likely to deliver a high return on investment than renewable energy projects that would help bring down greenhouse gas emissions.
A September report by the multi-stakeholder Zurich Climate Resilience Alliance said public funding remains crucial. Private finance now makes up just 3% of adaptation funding, which could rise to 15% with supportive policies, it said.
“We need resources that flow directly to local partners and communities who are already leading the response — rebuilding homes, restoring livelihoods, and protecting health systems from climate shocks,” said David Nicholson, chief climate officer at ZCRA member Mercy Corps.
(with inputs from Reuters)
China Started Dumping Goods Before U.S. Imposed Tariffs: ECB Study
Weak domestic demand rather than U.S. tariffs is the main reason China is dumping surplus products on European markets at rock-bottom prices at the expense of domestic producers, a European Central Bank study argued on Tuesday.
Pressure has been growing on the European Union to act on surging imports from China as U.S. tariffs force Beijing to find new markets for products it now struggles to sell.
“Escalating trade tensions between the United States and China might result in a further diversion of Chinese exports to Europe,” the ECB argued in an Economic Bulletin article.
“However, the rise in China’s exports to the EU predates the latest tensions and coincides instead with the onset of weakness in domestic demand in China,” the ECB added.
2021 Trend
The ECB argues that the start of the current trend can be dated back to 2021, when a housing downturn in China depressed domestic demand and started weighing on housing investment, an import-sensitive sector.
Meanwhile, state-led manufacturing investment, aimed at stabilising growth, created excess capacity and led firms into price wars, prompting them to redirect sales toward foreign markets, the ECB argued.
“To expand abroad, firms must gain competitiveness,” the ECB argued. “They typically do so by reducing short-run marginal costs and prices, or by accepting narrower profit margins, and in some cases even losses.”
Meanwhile, a host of factors in China, like weak consumer demand, trade policies, and a strategic focus on the domestic manufacture of key products, keep curbing import demand and point to a lasting shift in China’s import behaviour, leaving the trade gap on a widening path.
Trump-Xi Meeting
Late last month, U.S. President Donald Trump said he had agreed to cut tariffs on Chinese goods to 47% following what he called an “amazing” meeting with President Xi Jinping, in return for China resuming purchases of U.S. soybeans, continuing rare earth exports, and curbing fentanyl trafficking.
Trump repeatedly talked up the prospect of reaching an agreement with Xi since U.S. negotiators said they had agreed on a framework with China that will avoid 100% U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and achieve a deferral of China’s export curbs on rare earths, a sector it dominates.
But with both countries increasingly willing to play hardball over areas of economic and geopolitical competition, many questions remain about how long any trade detente may last.
(with inputs from Reuters)
Russian Troops Enter Kupiansk City, Seize Train Stations
Russian forces have advanced deep into the Ukrainian city of Kupiansk and moved southward to seize several train stations, a Russian field commander said on Tuesday.
The commander, who gave his call sign as “Hunter” and identified himself as being in charge of Russia’s 1486th Motorised Rifle Regiment’s assault detachment, said his forces had taken control of an oil depot on the eastern edge of Kupiansk.
Russian Forces Advance
In a video statement issued by the Defence Ministry, he said that his forces had also taken control of a series of train stops along the railway to Kupiansk Vuzlovyi, a settlement which is about 6 km (4 miles) south of the centre of Kupiansk itself.
Russian forces were also fighting to clear the railway station at the nearby settlement of Kupiansk-Sortuvalnyi, he added.
Russia has been using pincer movements to try to encircle the Ukrainian cities of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region and Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region, though Ukraine said on Monday it had delivered supplies to Myrnohrad, east of Pokrovsk.
Russian war bloggers published an unverified video on Tuesday showing what they said were Russian forces entering Pokrovsk along a road enveloped in fog or mist.
Russian forces on motorcycles and in an odd assortment of cars and other vehicles, many missing doors and windows, were shown driving along a road strewn with debris as soldiers looked on. Some Russian soldiers sat on the roof of a battered vehicle. A drone was seen beside the road.
Ukraine’s Response
Ukraine’s top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, in an interview with the New York Post, said Russia was concentrating some 150,000 troops in a drive to capture Pokrovsk, with mechanised groups and marine brigades part of the push.
Syrskyi told the same newspaper that Ukrainian forces were using built-up urban areas to limit the progress of Russian troops and were confronting Russian sabotage units.
(With inputs from Reuters)
China: CO2 Emissions Remain Flat For 18 Months, Analysis Finds
China’s carbon dioxide emissions were flat year-on-year in the third quarter, extending a now 18-month streak of flat or falling emissions, an analysis for climate publication Carbon Brief found.
The trend, which began in March 2024, suggests that CO2 emissions could decline this year, provided there is no year-end spike, according to an analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta of the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
CO2 output rose 0.8% in 2024 after a post-pandemic rebound at the start of the year, a previous Carbon Brief analysis found.
The government in September pledged to cap its carbon emissions by 2030 and, by 2035, reduce them by 7% to 10% from that as-yet unknown peak.
That commitment was China’s first to reduce emissions, though the scale of the cuts fell short of broader expectations. The EU climate commissioner called it “disappointing”.
The U.S. pullback from international climate agreements under President Donald Trump has created an opening for China to play a greater role in the matter, including at the U.N. COP30 climate summit in Brazil, which began on Monday.
Flat emissions in the third quarter of 2025 came as rising chemical sector emissions offset declines or plateaus elsewhere.
Transport emissions fell 5% and power-sector emissions were flat in the third quarter, even as electricity demand grew 6.1%, the analysis found.
Electricity generation from wind, solar, nuclear, and hydropower covered some 90% of that increase in demand. Gas-fired generation also cut into coal’s share.
But growth in the chemical industry kept overall emissions from falling. Plastic production grew 12% in the year in January-September, driven by surging domestic demand for plastic in food delivery and e-commerce.
China has also ramped up domestic production of polyethylene, the most widely used type of plastic, in response to the trade war with the U.S., the analysis said.
The government has also encouraged refineries to shift to chemical production to make up for a drop in transport fuel demand amid a widespread shift to electric vehicles.
(with inputs from Reuters)










