U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s latest no-show, coupled with Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats and escalating tensions between Washington and BRICS nations, is expected to overshadow this week’s G20 finance chiefs’ summit in Durban, South Africa.

Several key officials, including Bessent, skipped February’s Cape Town gathering of finance ministers and central banks in the grouping, already raising questions about its ability to tackle pressing global challenges.

“I think it’s problematic not to have the world’s largest economy represented at the table, at least at a senior political level,” said Josh Lipsky, chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council.

“It raises questions about the G20’s long-term viability,” said Lipsky, adding that Bessent’s absence foreshadowed U.S. plans for a slimmed-down, “back to basics” G20 when it assumes the grouping’s rotating presidency next year.

Tariff Threat Escalates

Trump has implemented a baseline 10% tariff on all U.S. imports, with punitive rates targeting specific countries and products, including steel and aluminium at 50%, autos at 25%, and threatened levies of up to 200% on pharmaceuticals. Extra tariffs on 25 countries are set to take effect on August 1.

His threat to impose further tariffs on BRICS countries adds complexity, given that eight G20 members – including host South Africa – belong to the expanded BRICS grouping. The overlap hints at the emergence of competing forums as Western-led institutions face credibility challenges.

“Policy uncertainty is the biggest theme at this point in time,” South African Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Fundi Tshazibana told Reuters.

The G20 has its origins in past crisis fire-fighting and really took off as countries around the world saw a need to coordinate policies to emerge from the global financial crisis of the late 2000s.

“The G20 was built around a presumption that all the world’s major economies shared a common interest in a stable, relatively open global economy,” said Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations. “But Trump doesn’t really care about stability and wants a more closed global economy.”

‘Difficult Space’

The Durban gathering of finance chiefs on Thursday and Friday also unfolds against a backdrop of mounting economic pressures, particularly for African economies. Sub-Saharan Africa’s external debt has ballooned to $800 billion, or 45% of GDP, according to Goldman Sachs, while traditional funding sources are drying up.

Chinese lending has slowed to a trickle after years of expansion, leaving an $80 billion financing gap.

“The views that they’ve expressed are if you negotiate them down before taking the loan, they will go with that,” said Trevor Manuel, the former finance minister of South Africa, who is leading the Africa Expert Panel of the G20.

“But once the loan is made, then they expect a return, and that is embedded in their legislation. So that is one issue that needs a lot of attention,” he said. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has brought very significant resources to the African continent, “but there are also the offsets,” said Manuel.

“I think that part of the push going forward is greater transparency, which means that some of the barter arrangements and so on need to be dealt with quite differently.”

Meanwhile, U.S. and European grants – accounting for 25% of the region’s external financing – face cuts as Washington suspends foreign aid and European capitals redirect funds towards defence.

“Africa is in a difficult space,” said Lumkile Mondi, political commentator at the University of Witwatersrand.

“Investment in the continent is going to dwindle because of high levels of indebtedness and low GDP growth, making it less relevant in the current geoeconomics.”

Fractured Solidarity

When it assumed the G20 presidency in December under the motto “Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability”, Pretoria had hoped to use the platform to pressure rich countries on climate finance and address the distrust between the global North and South. Instead, it finds itself managing the fallout from aid cuts and tariff wars that directly undermine those goals.

As the continent’s most developed economy, South Africa faces pressure to champion African interests while navigating great power rivalries. The National Treasury said it was “premature to comment” on specific goals for the gathering, however.

Director General of Treasury Duncan Pieterse said in a statement on Monday that they hoped to issue the first Communique under the South African G20 presidency at the end of the meetings.

On Monday, the G20’s financial stability watchdog delivered a new plan on how to tackle climate risks but paused policy work amid a U.S. retreat that has tested efforts to advance a united financial policy on climate-related risks.

The U.S. has withdrawn from multiple groups dedicated to exploring how flooding, wildfires, and big climate-related policy shifts could impact financial stability.

(With inputs from Reuters)