Support us by contributing to StratNewsGlobal on the following UPI ID
ultramodern@hdfcbank
Strategic affairs is our game, South Asia and beyond our playground. Put together by an experienced team led by Nitin A. Gokhale. Our focus is on strategic affairs, foreign policy and international relations, with higher quality reportage, analysis and commentary with new tie-ups across the South Asian region.
You can support our endeavours. Visit us at www.stratnewsglobal.com and follow us on YouTube, Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
र 500 per month
र 1000 per month
र 5000 per year
र 10000 per year
Donate an amount of your choice
र 500 per month
Donate र 500 per month
र 1000 per month
Donate र 1000 per month
र 5000 per year
Donate र 5,000 per year
र 10000 per year
Donate र 10,000 per year
Donate an amount of your choice
Donate an amount of your choice
Poland Claims Russian Drone Incursions Were Deliberate, Contradicting Trump
Poland on Friday firmly dismissed United States President Donald Trump‘s suggestion that drone incursions into its airspace might have been accidental, calling them “a deliberate Russian attack.”
Poland, backed by aircraft from its NATO allies, shot down drones that had violated its airspace on Wednesday, the first time a member of the Western military alliance is known to have fired during Russia’s war in Ukraine.
European leaders strongly condemned the drone incursions and demanded new sanctions against Moscow. The United Nations Security Council was set to meet on Friday at Poland’s request to discuss the incident.
Russia said its forces had been attacking Ukraine at the time of the incursions and that it had not intended to hit any targets in Poland. Trump told reporters in Washington on Thursday: “It could have been a mistake.”
‘No Question Of A Mistake’
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk responded on X: “We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn’t. And we know it.”
Poland is among the closest U.S. allies in Europe, praised by the Trump administration for devoting the largest share of its economy to the defence of any NATO ally, including the United States itself. For its leader to contradict Trump so directly in public is almost unheard of, and a sign of Europe’s alarm at the U.S. president’s willingness to give weight to Moscow’s account.
Polish Deputy Defence Minister Cezary Tomczyk said: “I think this is a message that should reach President Trump today: there’s no question of a mistake – this was a deliberate Russian attack.”
Warsaw has portrayed the drone incursions as an attempt by Russia to test the capabilities of Poland and NATO to respond. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski was visiting Kyiv on Friday.
Questions About European Defences
The incident has raised questions about NATO’s preparedness for drone attacks and the security of its civil air transport.
European leaders say it is the latest demonstration that Moscow has no interest in a peace deal in Ukraine, weeks after Trump hosted President Vladimir Putin in Alaska and withdrew a demand that Russia accept an immediate ceasefire.
France’s outgoing foreign minister said the Russian ambassador would be summoned on Friday, and Britain announced a new package of Russia-related sanctions.
Trump has repeatedly set deadlines for Moscow to agree to a ceasefire or face new sanctions, only to row back.
European officials have been in Washington this week, hoping to coordinate sanctions on Russia with the U.S. administration. Announcing such sanctions in tandem was previously standard practice, but has not taken place since Trump returned to office.
France said on Thursday it will deploy three Rafale fighter jets to help Poland protect its airspace, and Germany said it would strengthen its commitment to NATO’s eastern border. Japan said it had decided to lower its price cap on Russian crude oil to punish Moscow for its continued war in Ukraine.
Russia and its close ally Belarus began a long-planned joint military exercise on Friday that will involve drills in both countries and in the Baltic and Barents seas.
Russia also pressed on with attacks on Ukraine, killing three people in the northern Ukrainian region of Sumy, local Ukrainian prosecutors said.
Ukrainian drones attacked Russia’s northwestern port of Primorsk, setting fire to a vessel and a pumping station, the regional governor said. It was the first reported drone strike on one of the country’s largest oil and fuel export terminals.
(With inputs from Reuters)
Nepal’s Ex-Chief Justice Karki Expected To Become Interim PM: Source
Nepal‘s former chief justice, Sushila Karki, is expected to be named interim prime minister, a source familiar with the discussions said on Friday, following the resignation of K.P. Sharma Oli amid widespread anti-corruption protests.
The Himalayan nation’s worst upheaval in years, which killed 51 people this week and injured more than 1,300 as police fought to control crowds, was sparked by a social media ban, now rolled back. The violence subsided only after Oli resigned.
“Sushila Karki will be appointed interim prime minister,” said a constitutional expert consulted by President Ramchandra Paudel and army chief Ashok Raj Sigdel, who sought anonymity as the negotiations are sensitive.
“They (Gen Z) want her. This will happen today,” the source added, referring to the ‘Gen Z’ protesters whose popular name derives from the age of most participants.
Nepal’s First Female Chief Justice
Nepal’s first and only female chief justice, Karki, 73, is known for her honesty, integrity, and stand against corruption.
Her appointment is likely to be formally made after a meeting at Paudel’s residence, rescheduled to Friday afternoon from an initial time in the morning, according to a Gen Z source involved in the talks.
The president’s office and the army spokesperson did not respond to a Reuters request for comment on the matter.
Wedged between India and China, Nepal has grappled with political and economic instability since the abolition of its monarchy in 2008, while a lack of jobs drives millions to seek work in other countries and send money home.
Shops began reopening on Friday, among signs that normalcy was returning in the capital of Kathmandu, with cars in the streets and police personnel taking up batons instead of the guns they carried earlier in the week.
Some roads stayed blocked, though streets were patrolled by fewer soldiers than before. Authorities began handing to families the bodies of their loved ones killed in the protests.
“While his friends backed off (from the protests), he decided to go ahead,” Karuna Budhathoki said of her 23-year-old nephew, as she waited to collect his body at Kathmandu’s Teaching Hospital.
“We were told he was brought dead to the hospital.”
The 51 dead included 21 protesters, nine prisoners, three police officers and 18 others, police spokesperson Binod Ghimire said, without elaborating.
Another protester who died, Ashab Alam Thakurai, 24, got married only a month earlier, his relatives said.
“The last time we spoke to him … he said he was stuck with the protest. After that, we could not contact him … eventually we found him in the morgue,” said his uncle, Zulfikar Alam.
(With inputs from Reuters)
Germany: Merz Faces Key Test As AfD Surges Ahead Of Local Polls
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to face his first major electoral challenge this Sunday, as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) gains record-high polling numbers — despite his vow to curb their influence.
Local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, could show whether the AfD can translate its successes in eastern Germany to the urban, more Catholic west, where it has always been weaker.
Almost a quarter of Germany’s 81 million people live in the region, whose ethnically diverse mix of post-industrial towns, buzzing university metropolises, and agricultural uplands makes it a bellwether for Germany as a whole.
The conservatives, with 35% support statewide according to an August 22 INSA poll, are likely to remain dominant, but the AfD, with 16% is at twice its level of five years ago, and its party’s mayoral candidates have a chance of reaching runoff votes two weeks later.
Weak Economy, Rising Unemployment Pressure Coalition
Both Merz’s conservatives and their Social Democrat national coalition partners are under pressure four months after Merz took office, with the economy sluggish, unemployment rising, and polls showing voters are restive about immigration, the AfD’s signature theme.
“The impressions I’m getting are weighing on me so much that I can hardly sleep anymore,” said Frank Schoenberger, a lawyer and conservative local politician of decades’ standing in the picturesque Rhineland town of Leverkusen, describing ill-tempered voters who no longer wish to engage.
“People say, ‘no, leave me alone’ or ‘I’ll be voting AfD anyway,'” he said.
Since the federal election in February, the AfD has started topping some national opinion polls, though others show Merz’s conservatives still in front.
SPD Faces Stiff Challenge
In Gelsenkirchen, a former mining city in the Ruhr valley where old pit elevators loom over boarded-up shops, it is the Social Democratic Party (SPD) that faces a stiff challenge.
“All the shops are closing, nobody has any money, unemployment is so high,” said Ute Hollmann, a voter passing an SPD campaign stall.
While the AfD is unlikely to win any mayoralties, merely getting into second rounds would be a breakthrough, suggesting it will be even harder nationally to form governing majorities without the AfD, which all others say they will never work with.
Merz has cut a more assured figure on the international stage than his Social Democrat predecessor Olaf Scholz, playing a central role in efforts to rally European countries to form a united front in defence of Ukraine as US President Donald Trump wavers in his support. But he remains hostage to promises during the campaign to lead a dramatic shift on migration.
‘Clear Language’
The AfD’s status as an insurgent party gives it a freer hand.
“Our voters love our clear language,” said Enxhi Seli-Zacharias, an AfD member of Gelsenkirchen council. “They don’t just understand us: they believe we’ll keep our word.”
While established parties run stalls in market squares, the AfD’s ground presence is more limited, its online messaging focused on national issues, from nuclear power to migration, over which their councillors have no say.
(With inputs from Reuters)
Trump’s India Ambassador Nominee Says US, India ‘Not Far Apart’ On Tariffs
U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for ambassador to India stated on Thursday that Washington and New Delhi are “not that far apart” on tariffs, during a hearing where he and fellow Republicans emphasised the generally warm bilateral relationship despite recent tensions.
In a highly unusual move, Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a surprise appearance at the hearing to introduce Sergio Gor, the nominee. India is “one of the top relationships the United States has in the world today in terms of the future of what the world’s going to look like,” Rubio said.
Successive U.S. administrations have courted India as a potential counterweight to an increasingly powerful China, but Trump’s trade war has severely tested the relationship.
Talks on lower tariff rates collapsed after India, the world’s fifth-largest economy, resisted opening its vast agricultural and dairy sectors. Bilateral trade is worth more than $190 billion each year.
Trump first imposed additional tariffs of 25% on imports from India, then said they would double to 50% from August 27 as punishment for New Delhi’s increased purchases of Russian oil, as Washington works to end the war in Ukraine.
“We’re not that far apart on a deal on these tariffs,” Gor, a close Trump aide who is director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
“I do think it will get resolved in the next few weeks,” Gor said.
Reset In Relations
The hearing underscored a recent shift in tone in the Trump administration’s dealings with New Delhi.
Senate aides said they could not remember another recent hearing in which the secretary of state came to introduce an ambassadorial nominee.
The hearing also happened more quickly than usual. Trump announced on August 22 that Gor was his choice for the post in New Delhi and to serve as a special envoy for South and Central Asian Affairs.
Republican senators said it would benefit India to have an ambassador who is so close to Trump. “There are few relationships that are as critical for our national security or for our economics,” said Senator Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, who was ambassador to Japan during Trump’s first term.
Trump said on Tuesday his administration is continuing negotiations to address trade barriers with India and that he would talk to Modi, in a sign of a reset after weeks of diplomatic friction.
Asked if he would commit to pushing to ensure that a summit meeting of the Quad, which groups India with Australia, Japan and the United States, would take place as scheduled later this year, Gor said: “Without committing to exact dates … the president is fully committed to continue to meet with the Quad and strengthening it.”
India has been expected to host a November Quad summit, with a more explicit focus on security regarding China than previously, but a person familiar with the matter told Reuters this month that Trump has yet to schedule a trip there.
“While we might have our moment of hiccups right now, we are on the track of resolving that,” Gor said.
“Our relationship with the Indian government, with the people of India, extends many more decades, and it’s a much warmer relationship than they have with the Chinese.”
(With inputs from Reuters)
India Expects No Major Disruptions To Foxconn Operations After Chinese Staff Pullback
India does not anticipate major disruptions to Foxconn’s local operations after the iPhone maker sent some Chinese employees home in recent months, a senior government official said this week.
“Although some of the Chinese workers had to leave because they were asked to return, operations did not really suffer significantly,” S. Krishnan, secretary of India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, told reporters in Taipei, referring to Foxconn’s India operations.
“Foxconn has been in their plant near Chennai for the last five years, and a new plant is coming up near Bengaluru. So they were able to manage with some of the workers there, some people from Taiwan, and some people from the United States,” Krishnan said late on Thursday during a visit to a trade show in Taiwan.
Chinese Staff Pullback
Foxconn, formally known as Hon Hai Precision Industry, asked hundreds of its engineers and technicians from mainland China to return home from its operations in India, Bloomberg News reported in July.
Foxconn and its client Apple have been seeking to ramp up iPhone production in India to mitigate the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threatened triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods, which are on hold as Beijing and Washington negotiate a trade deal.
Most of the iPhones Foxconn makes for Apple are assembled in China.
Krishnan said it was not clear why the employees from China were asked to return home.
Foxconn declined to comment. Apple did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
Improving Relations
Tensions between India and China escalated following a 2020 military clash along their disputed Himalayan border. In response, India imposed restrictions on Chinese investments, banned hundreds of popular Chinese apps and cut air passenger routes between the two countries.
Relations between China and India have gradually improved in recent months, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi holding talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping last month during his first visit to China in seven years.
“Our understanding is that Foxconn stands committed to see through all the investments in India … their expansion in India has been very significant,” Krishnan said.
(With inputs from Reuters)
China Tests Village Surveillance In Solomon Islands To Bolster Stability
China has introduced its village surveillance system to the Solomon Islands, where Chinese police are testing fingerprinting and data collection to manage social unrest, officials and residents said.
China’s “Fengqiao” monitoring model – started under Mao Zedong in the 1960s to help communities mobilise against reactionary “class enemies” – has been reinvigorated by Chinese President Xi Jinping to ensure stability in local communities.
Fengqiao Promotion
In the Solomon Islands, a security partner of Beijing, Chinese police have visited several villages this year promoting the Fengqiao concept, familiarising children with surveillance drones by playing games, pictures posted to social media by Solomon Islands police show.
China’s foreign ministry in Beijing and China’s Pacific envoy in Fiji did not respond to requests for comment.
A grid system operates across Chinese villages, with each grid manager responsible for “monitoring blocks of households”, Ben Hillman, Director of the Australian Centre on China in the World at the Australian National University, said.
It was an “ideal mode of governance” for the Chinese Communist Party because “people mobilise in support of the Party’s agenda and monitor each other so that social conflicts can be nipped in the bud before they escalate”, said Hillman.
“It is unusual to see the model promoted outside of China because its operation depends on particular social and political institutions,” he added.
Pilot Project ‘Will Be Expanded’
A community leader in the Solomon Islands, Andrew Nihopara, confirmed to Reuters that the village of Fighter 1 on the fringe of the capital Honiara had begun working with the Chinese police on a Fengqiao pilot, but declined to comment further.
The Royal Solomon Islands Police Force said in a statement this month that the Fengqiao model of “grassroots governance” in Fighter 1 would collect population data to improve security.
Chinese police had introduced residents to population management, household registration, community mapping, and the collection of fingerprints and palm prints, the statement said.
“The Fighter One community is the first attempt, and it will be expanded to a larger area across the country in the future,” the statement quoted Chinese police inspector Lin Jiamu as saying, explaining the initiative would enhance safety.
Human Rights Concerns
The move has stirred human rights concerns.
“It is an infringement on individual rights that are protected by our constitution and should have come through parliament, through our laws,” opposition party politician Peter Kenilorea said in a telephone interview.
The office of Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele referred questions to the police, who did not respond to a request for comment.
China’s Ministry of Public Security gave a seminar in February about the Fengqiao Experience in the Solomon Islands, drawing parallels between China’s villages and island social structure, a Chinese embassy post on the Weixin messaging app showed.
Clifton Aumae, deputy director of the Solomon Islands Ministry of Traditional Governance, Peace & Ecclesiastical Affairs, told Reuters he did not think Fengqiao would be accepted by traditional villages.
“This system disregards the culture that we have. I don’t think it will sit well with traditional communities in the Solomon Islands, where the chief is always at the centre and is responsible for order,” he said.
Aumae said his ministry instead wants to restore the power of village chiefs under the law to deal with youth anti-social behaviour.
Resident Sees ‘A Rise In Lawlessness’
A resident near Fighter 1, who is familiar with the Fengqiao trial but did not want to be named, told Reuters the community was multi-ethnic and there had been “a rapid deterioration in social order and a rise in lawlessness”.
In the urban fringe, communities with residents drawn from many provinces were resisting traditional systems, he said.
“This might be a stepping stone towards creating order as well as keeping data, which is one thing that is lacking,” the resident said.
Kenilorea said he was concerned it was a step towards an authoritarian system. “There are better ways to manage communities that are impoverished or struggling,” he said.
Chinese police had also promoted Fengqiao when visiting 16 villages in Malaita, the largest Solomon Islands province with a history of anti-China protests, another police statement on social media showed, and a local resident confirmed to Reuters.
China struck a security pact with the Solomon Islands in 2022 after anti-government riots in 2021. The protests were fuelled in part by Malaita politicians opposing the Solomon Islands’ switching diplomatic ties from Taiwan to Beijing.
(With inputs from Reuters)
Graft, Unrest, Anger, Outrage: What Lies Ahead After Nepal’s Youth Protests Brought Down The Govt
The protests were triggered by a controversial social media ban, but the anger had long been brewing in what he called a ‘pressure cooker society,’ fuelled by corruption, impunity, and an apathetic political elite disconnected from the aspirations of Nepal’s tech-savvy youth.
Economically, the crisis has devastated businesses and investor confidence. Major employers and supply chains like Bhat-Bhateni Superstores and Chaudhary Group were destroyed, while cash worth millions was burned in arson attacks on politicians’ homes. With more than one third of Nepal’s GDP dependent on remittances, the unrest is expected to accelerate migration as jobs vanish. Thapa warned that this cycle of unemployment, corruption, and capital flight could cripple the economy in the short term, though he expressed confidence in Nepal’s resilience, citing its recovery from past disasters like the 2015 earthquake, blockades, and COVID-19.
Public fury was intensified by incidents like a minister running over a young girl with impunity, and by the visible wealth of political families flaunted on social media.
This created a stark disconnect between ordinary citizens and ruling elites. Thapa emphasized that the state’s excessive use of force, which killed scores of schoolchildren, marked a turning point.
Thapa argued that Nepal’s future requires national reconciliation and political inclusion. Excluding any faction could fuel further unrest. The Army, which has retained public trust with a 90% approval rating and acted with restraint during the crisis, is likely to play a stabilizing role.
Charlie Kirk’s Shooter Still At Large As Manhunt Enters Third Day
The sniper who gunned down conservative activist Charlie Kirk remained at large on Friday, as investigators circulated photos and video of the suspected gunman behind Wednesday’s politically charged attack at a Utah university.
President Donald Trump said investigators were making progress in tracking down the gunman who fired a single rifle shot on Wednesday that struck the neck of Kirk, a 31-year-old author and podcast host who helped galvanise the conservative youth vote and return Trump to the White House.
Officials were still calling the man captured on video a person of interest, not a suspect, but placed him at the scene of the crime at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah.
Kirk was on campus for one of his student-outreach events, featuring his trademark format of taking questions and challenging opponents to debate on the most polarising issues of the day, including gun violence and race. About 3,000 people were in attendance.
Era Of Political Violence
The shooting has punctuated the most sustained period of U.S. political violence since the 1970s. Reuters has documented more than 300 cases of politically motivated acts of violence across the ideological spectrum since supporters of Trump attacked the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.
Trump himself has survived two attempts on his life last year, one that left him with a grazed ear during a campaign event and another two months later, foiled by federal agents.
Video played at a press briefing late on Thursday showed a man walking across the roof of the building where the gunfire originated, before climbing down and dropping to the ground and leaving the campus. Across the road, he entered a small wooded area where officials recovered what they described as a high-powered, bolt-action rifle they believe was used in the shooting.
Bolt-action rifles, unlike self-loading semi-automatic rifles often used in mass shootings, are popular with American game hunters, target shooters and snipers in militaries around the world. They require the manual loading of each cartridge into the chamber with a turn of the bolt, but are perceived as more accurate at longer ranges when a single, fatal shot is all that is needed.
Utah Department of Public Safety Commissioner Beau Mason said the man left some palm impressions and smudges where investigators were looking to collect DNA.
“There’s a shoe imprint where we believe the suspect is clearly identified as wearing Converse tennis shoes,” Mason added.
FBI Announces $100,000 Reward
Utah Governor Spencer Cox, appearing at a press briefing with FBI Director Kash Patel and other officials, asked for the public’s help in identifying the slender young man, whose appearance was partially concealed by a dark baseball cap and sunglasses.
“We cannot do our job without the public’s help right now,” Cox said. “So far, we’ve received more than 7,000 leads and tips. I would just note that the FBI hasn’t received this many digital media tips from the public since the Boston Marathon bombing of 2013.”
The FBI offered a $100,000 reward for information leading to the arrest of Kirk’s killer.
Lawmakers, commentators and online sleuths have already filled social media and message boards with speculation about the killer’s identity and blame-casting about his ideology.
Kirk, 31, a husband and father of two, was dear to many in Trump’s MAGA political movement. Vice President JD Vance credited him with helping Trump win the 2024 presidential election and select people appointed to the Trump administration.
Vance cancelled a trip to New York and instead travelled to Utah to see Kirk’s family and to fly them and Kirk’s casket home to Arizona aboard Air Force Two.
Trump said he would award Kirk the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian honour.
“Charlie Kirk was a great person, a great man – great in every way, especially with youth” Trump told reporters.
“Investigators are making great strides on finding Charlie Kirk’s assassin. Hopefully, we’ll have him and we will deal with him very appropriately,” Trump said.
(With inputs from Reuters)
Maryland Naval Academy Lockdown Lifted After No Shooter Threat Found, Official Says
Military and local law enforcement found no shooter threat at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland, after the campus was locked down on Thursday following reports of a potential security threat, a U.S. Navy official said.
Naval Support Activity Annapolis security and local law enforcement responded to reports of suspicious activity on the Naval Academy grounds at 5:07 PM ET (2107 GMT).
The U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis coordinated with local law enforcement to address reports of potential threats, according to Lt. Naweed Lemar, spokesperson for the base that hosts the academy.
‘No Active Shooter Threat’
“There is no active shooter threat; however, one person was injured while Naval Security Forces were clearing a building,” the official said in a statement, adding that the injured person had been medevacked and was in a stable condition.
Maryland Governor Wes Moore’s office later confirmed that a joint assessment conducted by local, state, and federal law enforcement agencies determined no credible threat existed.
“In coordination with local, state, and federal law enforcement partners, there is presently no credible threat to the Naval Academy,” a spokesperson told WBAL-TV, the first outlet to report the update.
Fox News reported earlier that gunshots were heard inside the campus.
Naval Support Activity Annapolis said in an earlier statement on Facebook that the base was placed on lockdown “out of an abundance of caution” and that there had been “reports of threats made to the Naval Academy.”
Alert Issued
Staff members at the U.S. Naval Academy received an urgent alert regarding the lockdown.
The message read: “Lockdown immediately at the U.S. Naval Academy and Naval Support Activity Annapolis. Seek immediate shelter. Secure and barricade all doors. Avoid windows at all costs. Remain in lockdown until an official all-clear is provided. This is NOT a drill.”
(With inputs from Reuters and IBNS)
Turkiye: Erdogan Rival Risks Losing Party Leadership
A Turkish court is set to rule on Monday whether to remove the leader of the main opposition party — a decision widely seen as a key test of Turkiye’s fragile balance between democracy and growing autocracy, following nearly a year of legal pressure on the party.
Hundreds of members of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) have been jailed pending trial in a sprawling probe into alleged corruption and terrorism links, among them President Tayyip Erdogan’s main political rival – Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
The unprecedented crackdown, which has eroded the CHP’s leadership ranks, has also sharpened concerns over what critics call Turkiye’s autocratic slide in which the courts, media, military, central bank and other formerly more independent institutions have bent to Erdogan’s will over his 22-year reign.
Next Biggest Rival
The centrist CHP, which denies the charges against it, is neck-and-neck with Erdogan’s Islamic-rooted, conservative AK party (AKP) in the polls, and its scrappy, hoarse-voiced leader Ozgur Ozel has risen to prominence since Imamoglu’s detention.
After headlining several dozen big anti-Erdogan street rallies this year, Ozel has emerged as the president’s next biggest rival.
His political future is at stake in Monday’s ruling, when an Ankara court will decide whether to overturn the CHP’s congress in 2023 over alleged procedural irregularities. If it does, as most analysts expect, Ozel would be stripped of the CHP chairmanship he won at the meeting.
The court could then name a trustee to run the party, or reinstate former chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who Erdogan defeated in 2023 elections. It could also delay a ruling.
Kilicdaroglu has lost the trust of many CHP members who criticise his almost complete silence throughout the crackdown and see him as having grown close to Erdogan, accusations he denies.
“If such a judicial coup against the main opposition takes place, that would be the collapse of the multi-party system in Turkiye,” Berk Esen, a political analyst at Sabanci University, said of any ruling to oust Ozel as CHP leader.
Boost For Erdogan?
Such a ruling could throw the opposition into further disarray and infighting, boosting Erdogan’s chances of extending his rule.
The CHP, the party of modern Turkiye’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, denies all of the allegations it faces as unfounded and politically motivated, pointing out that they have only involved municipalities that it governs following sweeping local election victories in 2024.
Erdogan’s government rejects this and says the judiciary is independent and needs time to sort through the tangle of CHP corruption.
Erdogan said this week that ignoring court decisions “is a blatant defiance of the rule of law. Such irresponsibility will not be tolerated”.
Government officials and some analysts say the 2024 local elections, in which voters handed Erdogan’s AKP its biggest ever defeat, showed that democracy underpins the NATO member country despite critics’ concerns.
Judicial Coup
The first CHP arrests began last October. When Imamoglu was detained in March, the lira and Turkish assets plunged, forcing the central bank to reverse a rate-cutting cycle.
Markets fell again two weeks ago when a court ordered the removal of the party’s Istanbul provincial head over alleged irregularities in a separate congress vote.
The Istanbul ruling led to a dramatic police siege of the city’s CHP headquarters, and efforts by lawmakers to block them with tables and chairs. Some analysts see that as a precursor to Monday’s ruling in Ankara.
Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc has said the former ruling has implications for the latter.
Yet according to the constitution, only the Supreme Election Board – not any court – has the authority to supervise elections, including party congresses. The board has already endorsed the CHP’s choice of Ozel as chair.
Extraordinary Congress
Ozel has said the CHP would refuse to hand over his post in the wake of a court ruling, and that he would remain in its Ankara headquarters. If needed, he said the party could call millions of Turks to the streets to protest.
To protect Ozel, a large majority of CHP delegates have already called for an extraordinary congress on September 21 to re-elect him. Ozel says anyone appointed by the court to replace him would not be able to cancel this plan.
(With inputs from Reuters)