In a sweeping assessment of India’s complex neighbourhood, veteran diplomat Yash Sinha paints a picture of persistent instability, entrenched challenges, and evolving geopolitical equations.
In this edition of Strat Talks, Sinha — who served as former High Commissioner to the UK and Sri Lanka, Joint Secretary heading the Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran Division of the MEA and as Chief Information Commissioner — begins by quoting late Prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee — “you can choose your friends, not your neighbours” — to underscore the critical importance of India’s regional diplomacy.
Here are some key takeaways from the fascinating discussion.
- Pakistan remains a perennial challenge, with its most popular leader jailed and the military firmly in control. Yet, Sinha credits the Indian government with preventing major terror attacks since Pulwama, citing deterrence and Pakistan’s internal distractions.
- Afghanistan, post-U.S. withdrawal, has returned to Taliban rule. While the Taliban’s ideology remains rigid, they are not as hostile to India as in the past. India has kept low-level communication channels open—something Sinha sees as a diplomatic success.
- Nepal is dealing with political instability and a resurgence of monarchist sentiment. Sinha warns that such internal volatility may affect ties with India.
- Myanmar continues to spiral post-coup, with spillover effects in India’s northeast, particularly Manipur.
- Bangladesh surprised Sinha with its sudden political shift last year, raising questions about the constitutional legitimacy of its interim government. India, he suggests, must tread carefully.
- Bhutan stands out as a “peaceful exception,” though India watches its ties with China closely.
- In Sri Lanka, he describes the 2022 crisis as a “perfect storm” of economic collapse and citizen unrest. He strongly highlights India’s pivotal support—$4.5 billion in aid, vaccines, and fuel—as a “game changer” that significantly improved India’s image.
- Maldives, despite initial turbulence under the new government, has seen India benefit from “strategic patience,” a strategy Sinha believes paid off.
Throughout, he emphasizes India’s efforts to balance firm diplomacy with generosity, often in contrast to China’s debt-heavy and elite-focused approach. India, he suggests, offers a more people-centric development model—one that doesn’t enslave neighbours in debt, but builds grassroots goodwill.
Watch the full discussion to get fascinating insights into India’s neighbourhood from a veteran diplomat.
