Nepal’s oldest democratic party, the Nepali Congress, has split once again—just weeks ahead of the March 5 general elections. This is the party’s third formal rupture in its 76-year history, and its timing has intensified political uncertainty across the country.
Ranjit Rae, former Indian Ambassador to Hungary, Vietnam and Nepal, offers a seasoned diplomatic perspective on Nepal’s approaching elections and the implications of the split within the Nepali Congress. Drawing on more than three decades in the Indian Foreign Service, including long experience in conflict settings and high-stakes negotiations, Ambassador Rae explains to Anukriti how generational change, youth-led discontent, and institutional decisions could reshape Nepal’s political landscape—and what this moment means for democratic politics in the country.
Q: How do you assess the potential impact of the Nepali Congress party split on the upcoming general elections in March?
A: Well, you know, this is an unfortunate development. The Nepali Congress party is the largest and the oldest party of Nepal, and it has always been in the vanguard of all social and political movements and changes in Nepal. All the transitions—from monarchy to constitutional monarchy to republicanism—and the agreements with insurgent groups such as the Maoists.
So it’s really the Nepali Congress that has been the backbone of the democratic process in Nepal. So it’s unfortunate that this party has split. That’s point number one.
Also, Nepali Congress historically has had very strong connections with India.
Q: How do the Gen Z protests in Nepal relate to this split?
A: The Gen Z protests in Nepal were not some spontaneous, impromptu protests. There was a very deep-seated, deep-rooted grievance amongst young people—against corruption, against lack of jobs, against this triumvirate leadership. It was the same people who again and again assumed the position of prime minister—old leaders—so there was a lot of frustration. So the Gen Z movement was really a reflection of this: that now is the time to give younger people, more dynamic people, a chance to have influence and a say in the governance of the country. Within the Congress party also, there were basically two groups. There was the old guard that wanted to retain power and continue to function as if nothing had happened post–Gen Z, and the younger leadership, which felt that the reasons for the Gen Z protests need to be internalized and the party must face up to this new challenge and transform itself. Unfortunately, there could be no reconciliation between these two forces, with the old guard led by Sher Bahadur Deuba refusing to quit.
Q: How does this split change the party’s electoral prospects?
A: Had the party been united and gone into the election with new leadership, I think they would have stood a fantastic opportunity. Now, of course, the party is split.
My sense is that popular support is with the younger leadership, but a lot will depend on what the Election Commission decides. The Election Commission now has to decide which is the genuine Congress and who gets the party flag and the party symbol. If the younger elements get it, then I think there will be a very strong force in the upcoming elections. If the old guard gets it, going into elections with the same old, tired faces may not necessarily draw that kind of public support. So let’s see what happens. I think the Election Commission will decide in a day or two.
Q: Are we looking at a leadership crisis in Nepal, especially with young parties coming up?
A: I don’t think there’s a leadership crisis. Look at leadership all over the world—most of the leaders are quite young. You have younger leaders who are better educated, more tech-savvy, more linked to the grassroots, more aware of the aspirations and what needs to be done. So I don’t think there’s any leadership crisis. New leaders will emerge, and I’m sure they will do well for the country.
Q: Do you think Gagan Thapa will have strong youth support if he comes up?
A: Certainly, I think he would have the support of the youth. There’s no doubt about it. But then there is the other party, RSP, led by Rabi Lamichhane, and there is the charismatic mayor of Kathmandu. There is also the Communist Party led by former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. So there will be good contestation. The younger forces may have popular support, but the older forces have the organization, the cadres, and the resources. It is going to be a very interesting contest.
Q: Is this mainly a leadership contest?
A: I don’t look at it as a leadership contest. I look at it more as a generational transformation in the party. Nepal is a very young country—most of the people are young. The older leadership has had the chance to lead the country on many occasions, and there is no expectation that if they assume power once again, there will be any change. So I think it’s not just a question of who will be prime minister or party president. It’s about recognizing the new demands and aspirations of the youth and how to address these new challenges.
Q: Can rival or opposition parties benefit from this split?
A: The three major forces will be the Nepali Congress—now split into two—the RSP, and the Communist Party headed by KP Sharma Oli. Then you have smaller parties like the Maoists and Madhesi parties. I anticipate a lot of realignment. Smaller elements may merge, align with larger parties, or form coalitions. Everyone will do their calculations and decide what is best for them. Before the split, there was a strong rumour that the Nepali Congress might be in a coalition with the CPN-UML—that Sher Bahadur Deuba and Oli might contest the election jointly.
