Bangladesh’s election season is unfolding with both major political forces led by successors who live abroad, face legal or political obstacles, and have yet to return home before voting.
With the Awami League facing a ban and its longtime leader, Sheikh Hasina, continuing to reside in India, senior party figures are increasingly looking toward her son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, as the next potential leader. Similarly, on the opposition side, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chairperson Khaleda Zia remains critically ill, and attention has turned decisively to her son, Tarique Rahman. The shift reflects a political field where traditional leaders are absent, and their heirs are expected to shape the next phase of national politics despite being outside the country.
A recent Prothom Alo survey points to significant momentum for the BNP. According to the poll, 47.5% of respondents view Tarique Rahman as the leading contender for prime minister in the upcoming election. This support comes despite Rahman spending years in exile in the United Kingdom and without any parliamentary experience.
The poll names Jamaat-e-Islami chief Shafiqur Rahman as the next most likely candidate for the prime minister’s role, signalling a shifting electoral field where established political figures are no longer dominating public preference. Combined support for Khaleda Zia and Tarique Rahman accounts for more than 66% of responses, and 57.5% of those surveyed say a BNP victory would be the best outcome for the country.
However, there is still no indication that Tarique Rahman will return to Bangladesh in the immediate future. BNP leaders quoted in the Dhaka Tribune referred to “practical limitations and complexities” surrounding his return but said he would travel back when political conditions and international considerations were favourable. The government has publicly stated it will provide “all possible cooperation” if he decides to return. Rahman has cleared several past legal cases and currently faces no judicial obstacles preventing his entry.
Meanwhile, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, long regarded as Sheikh Hasina’s strategic and technological adviser, is also abroad and confronting mounting legal challenges. Anadolu Agency reported that the International Crimes Tribunal issued an arrest warrant accusing Joy of involvement in decisions to shut down nationwide internet access during the final phase of the July 2024 uprising. Separate corruption complaints are also under review, including allegations involving members of Hasina’s immediate family. Despite this, 8.5% of respondents in the Prothom Alo survey believe an Awami League victory would be best for the nation.
With both political heirs remaining overseas, facing legal scrutiny, public expectation and internal party dependence, Bangladesh enters an election cycle defined by leaders who are not presently in the country but are central to its political future.
