The much-heralded moment has arrived: on Thursday morning, acting BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman will return to Dhaka from London for the first time in 17 years. His biggest challenge would be leading the party to victory in the elections set for February. It will test his hold over the party and his political understanding and maturity.
More importantly, in the short window he has, he must energise his party cadres, for which he must physically cover much of Bangladesh, but the threat of assassination looms large.
As senior BNP leader Mirza Abbas told the Dhaka Tribune, “The entire nation is under a state of security fear at this moment. We are trying to ensure security as much as is needed. The rest is in Allah’s hands.”
Home Adviser Lt Gen Md Jahangir Alam Chowdhury (Retd) said the highest level of security has been ensured for Tarique Rahman ’s safe return. However, the recent attacks on media outlets and sporadic violence have raised concerns about law enforcement.
The opinion polls point to a BNP victory, and if Tarique Rahman’s mother passes away in the weeks leading up to the elections, victory is probably guaranteed. She is critical with multiple ailments and has been on a ventilator in a Dhaka hospital since December 11.
The U.S.-based International Republican Institute, in a recent survey, says the BNP is on course to win the largest number of parliamentary seats, and Rahman may be the next PM. This is the first time he will be contesting a parliamentary election.
The BNP has sought to smoothen the path to victory by stitching together alliances with seven partners, leaving seven seats for them. It is also setting aside four seats for the Jamaat-e-Islami, its former partner when in power many years ago. The Jamaat is expected to come second to the BNP in the hustings, according to various assessments.
But the spectre of large-scale violence puts a question mark over the elections. Even now, there are doubts about whether the polls will go ahead. Add to that a poisoned political atmosphere: Oman Hadi, brother of anti-India activist Sharif Osman Hadi, who was shot dead by unidentified assailants, has accused “vested quarter” within the current Yunus government of orchestrating his brother’s death.
The shooting attack on another student leader, Muhammad Sikdar, whose condition is reported to be critical, has added to the sense of insecurity. Minorities are on edge, anticipating more violence directed at them. The mob lynching of a Hindu on charges of blasphemy has added to their concerns.
The man presiding over this chaos, Interim Adviser Muhammad Yunus, remains confident: “We have roughly 50 days to go before the election,” he told Sergio Gor, Trump’s special envoy, “We want to hold a free, fair and peaceful election. We want to make it remarkable.”
The people of Bangladesh and neighbours like India will hope and pray it comes to pass.
