Iran’s clerical establishment faces a growing legitimacy crisis as anti-government protests spread nationwide, though they remain smaller than the 2022–23 unrest sparked by Mahsa Amini’s death.
Starting in Tehran with shopkeepers in the Grand Bazaar angered by a sharp slide in the rial currency, the latest protests now involve others – mainly young men rather than the women and girls who played a key role at the Amini protests.
The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), has reported at least 34 protesters and four security personnel killed, and 2,200 arrested during the unrest, which analysts say highlights a deeper disillusionment with the Shi’ite status quo.
Authorities have tried to maintain a dual approach to the unrest, saying protests over the economy are legitimate and will be met by dialogue, while meeting some demonstrations with tear gas amid violent street confrontations.
Nearly five decades after the Islamic Revolution, Iran’s religious rulers are struggling to bridge the gap between their priorities and the expectations of a young society.
Protesters Take Over the Streets
A former senior official from the establishment’s reformist wing said the Islamic Republic’s core ideological pillars — from enforced dress codes to foreign policy choices – did not resonate with those under 30 – nearly half the population.
The hijab, a flashpoint during the Amini protests, is now being enforced selectively.
In the ongoing protests, many protesters are venting anger over Tehran’s support for militants in the region, chanting slogans such as “Not Gaza, not Lebanon, my life for Iran,” signalling frustration at the establishment’s priorities.
Tehran’s regional sway has been weakened by Israel’s attacks on its proxies – from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq – as well as by the ousting of Iran’s close ally, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.
No Easy Way Out for Iran’s Supreme Leader
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, facing one of the most precarious moments of his decades-long rule, responded by vowing Iran “will not yield to the enemy.”
The former Iranian official said there is no easy way out for the 86-year-old leader, whose decades-old policies of building proxies, evading sanctions and advancing nuclear and missile programs appear to be unravelling.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has praised the protests, calling them “a decisive moment in which the Iranian people take their futures into their hands”.
Inside Iran, opinions are divided on whether foreign military intervention is imminent or possible and even firm government critics question whether it is desirable.
(With inputs from Reuters)
