Eurosceptic nationalist Karol Nawrocki appeared to take a narrow lead in Poland’s presidential election on Sunday, according to late exit polls. The vote is widely viewed as a key indicator of the country’s stance on choosing between a pro-European direction and a brand of nationalism reminiscent of Donald Trump.
A late exit poll by Ipsos for broadcasters TVN, TVP and Polsat showed Nawrocki at 50.7% and liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski at 49.3%. Readings published just after voting ended earlier had Nawrocki at 49.7%.
Official results were due on Monday, although another late report combining some results with exit surveys was expected to be published overnight.
Pro-Polish Campaign
Nawrocki, 42, an amateur boxer who ran a national remembrance institute, campaigned on a promise to ensure government economic and social policies favour Poles over other nations, including refugees from neighbouring Ukraine.
While Poland’s parliament holds most power, the president can veto legislation, and the vote was being watched closely in Ukraine as well as Russia, the US and across the European Union.
Both candidates agreed on the need to spend heavily on defence as Trump, the US president, is demanding from Europe and to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s three-year-old invasion. Poland is a member of the 32-nation North Atlantic Treaty Organization security alliance.
In Line With Kremlin’s Vision
While Trzaskowski sees Ukraine’s future membership of NATO as essential for Poland’s security, Nawrocki said recently that if he were president he would not ratify it because of the danger of the alliance being drawn into war with Russia.
Russia has demanded that NATO not enlarge eastward to include Ukraine and other former Soviet republics as a condition of a peace deal with Kyiv, sources have said.
‘Difficult To Reverse’
Nawrocki has presented the ballot as a referendum on the broad coalition government of pro-Europe Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the leader of the Civic Coalition (KO) party who took office about 18 months ago.
“This lead will be difficult to reverse,” said Mateusz Morawiecki, who served as prime minister of a nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) government that lost power in 2023.
Morawiecki said Nawrocki, who is backed by PiS, would be a “good counterweight to the government” as president.
Trzaskowski, 53, had promised to help Tusk complete his government’s democratic reforms, which they both say aim to repair an erosion of checks and balances under the former PiS government.
Tumultuous Campaign
The first round of the election on May 18 saw a surge in support for the anti-establishment far-right, suggesting that the KO-PiS duopoly that has dominated Polish politics for a generation may be starting to fracture.
Nevertheless, after a tumultuous campaign in which Nawrocki in particular faced a slew of negative media reports about his alleged past conduct, once again candidates representing the two main parties faced off in the second round.
Social issues were also at stake in the election. Trzaskowski has said he wanted to see Poland’s near total ban on abortion eased, something that outgoing nationalist President Andrzej Duda strongly opposed.
A win by Nawrocki will likely mean that Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico would get an ally in central Europe, and could galvanise voters in the Czech Republic where opinion polls show eurosceptic Andrej Babis might come back to power in October.
(With inputs from Reuters)
