Marine Le Pen’s Right Wing National Rally Predicted To Win Snap Polls Without Absolute Majority

French right-wing leader Marine Le Pen was all smiles as cameras surrounded her a day after the results of the EU Polls. Hours after the poll numbers were in, President Macron surprised many in France by dissolving the national assembly and announcing Parliamentary elections where voting will take place on June 30.

Surveys have given Le Pen’s National Rally party a clear lead over President Macron’s Renaissance Party in the snap polls. According to the survey by Toluna Harris Interactive for Challenges, M6 and RTL, Marine Le Pen’s RN would win 235 to 265 seats in the National Assembly. That’s a leap from its current tally of 88 but short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority.

Macron’s centrist alliance could see a big slump in its numbers, falling from 250 to 125-155. “I think we’re ready,” said Louis Aliot, Vice-President of Marine Le Pen’s party. “If the day after the 7th of July, there is a majority, either from the RN or in coalition with others, we will very quickly be able to get France moving again,” he added.

THE RIGHT WING GETS A SHOT AT POWER

Marine Le Pen’s party has already started talks with other like-minded parties to try and work out an alliance to boost their chances. In the EU polls, Marine Le Pen’s party got close to 32% of the vote, double of what Macron’s Renaissance Party polled.

The results triggered Macron’s decision to call for snap polls but there’s a very big risk the French President has taken.

Sciences Po’s Executive Director for the Centre of Political Sciences, Anne Muxel said, “It’s a play at risk because it opens the possibility that the extreme right arises for the first time at the government and it opens the eventuality to have a cohabitation in France between him, the president of the Republic, and the (far-right) government.

WHAT’S AT RISK FOR PRESIDENT MACRON?

Macron’s decision sent shockwaves to the market too where French stocks and government bonds tumbled. Macron will remain the President no matter what the outcome of the election but if he loses, it could fundamentally impact his say in crucial policy and decision-making when it comes to issues like immigration, security, and even impact policies like aid to Ukraine.

Muxel explains, “If the Rassemblement National (National Rally) wins these elections and arrives at the first place even with relative majority, even if it’s not the absolute majority, it will be the obligation for Emmanuel Macron to choose a prime minister among the Rassemblement National and maybe among the coalition of the radical right.”

HOW VOTERS RESPOND TO RISE OF THE FAR-RIGHT

Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration stance has found support in the electorate as the French get ready to vote again, this time to decide.

A retired local, who gave his name as Jean, said he supported the RN’s politics because, ‘I would like to stay French’, he said. Youngster Anais, who doesn’t support RN said, “I couldn’t explain it (the RN’s score in the European elections), I don’t understand why so many people voted for the RN. I think it’s a lack of information on the part of young people on social networks, because I think there’s a big problem with social networks.”

Benjamin Mathieu, who is an immigrant, said “I find it a bit unfortunate that in a place like this the (far-right) score is so high. When all you have to do is go out and talk to people to realise that there’s no reason for it. It’s something that is, I think, now being fuelled by fear, including in the media.”

Macron has taken a big political gamble that could give the far-right a very real shot at power. It is a big risk that could not only decide his political future but also that of France.