A large Chinese military drone has conducted regular flights over the South China Sea in recent months while transmitting false transponder signals that made it appear to be other aircraft, including a sanctioned Belarusian cargo plane and a British Typhoon fighter jet.
Military attaches and security analysts scrutinising the operations say the flights represent a step-change in China’s grey-zone tactics in the contested South China Sea and appear to be testing possible decoy capabilities in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Since August, at least 23 flights have been logged under the call sign YILO4200, a known long-endurance Chinese military drone, but the aircraft transmitted registration numbers of other aircraft, according to Reuters analysis of data from flight-tracking website Flightradar24.
The flight paths often head east from the Chinese province of Hainan towards the Philippines, near the disputed Paracel Islands, and down Vietnam’s coast, the flight analysis showed.
The flights mark an elaborate new phase in China’s expanding presence in the South China Sea and around Taiwan, as its military sharpens readiness under Communist Party directives, diplomats and analysts say. They involve real-time electronic warfare and deception tactics.
While unlikely to fool air traffic controllers or military radars, the masking could create confusion in a conflict, hide sensitive surveillance, or aid propaganda and misinformation efforts.
Operation Could Sow Confusion
Flying from Hainan’s Qionghai Boao International Airport, the drone stayed aloft for hours, tracing star- and hourglass-shaped patterns over sensitive areas of the South China Sea, including waters used by submarines, analysts said. The Chinese military typically flies drones “dark,” without transmitting call signs or registration numbers.
Singapore-based security analyst Alexander Neill said the flights appear to be a new tactic to “muddy the waters” in a crisis, resembling rehearsals for confrontation. In highly automated warfare, he noted, even milliseconds matter.
Analysts said the YILO4200 call sign is linked to the long-endurance Wing Loong 2 drone, produced by state-backed Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, a subsidiary of AVIC. The aircraft is primarily used for surveillance but can carry out strike and anti-submarine missions.
It remains unclear which Chinese agency operated it from the dual-use Boao airport. Satellite images reviewed by Reuters show large drones at the site in recent months.
Rehearsal For Taiwan
Flightradar24 communications director Ian Petchenik said the tracker had noticed the Hainan flights and had not seen such activity before, beyond apparently accidental miscodings, non-existent addresses or corrupted data.
The paths run through areas of heavy naval activity, including the waters south of Hainan near Chinese submarine bases and east toward the Bashi Channel between Taiwan and the Philippines – a key choke point for China’s navy to access the Pacific.
The route patterns suggest a rehearsal for an operation over Taiwan, said Neill, the security analyst.
Overlaid on a map of Taiwan, the 23 flight paths pass multiple military points of interest, concentrated around Taipei but also extending along the island’s southern coastline. The eastern trajectories bring the aircraft close to Japanese and U.S. bases in Okinawa and other islands in the Ryukyu chain.
(With inputs from Reuters)
