Some Chinese online users are calling for a lightning Venezuela-style snatch of Taiwan’s leaders in a prelude to taking over the island, but analysts, scholars and security officials say China ‘s modernising military is still far from ready.
In Taiwan, they say, China’s military has an zadversary which has prepared for years against a “decapitation operation” on its leaders, besides extensive air defences and radar capabilities, as well as likely support from the United States and its allies.
Although China has spent years acquiring advanced weapons, questions remain about the capabilities of its People’s Liberation Army in using them effectively, as well as a command structure that must knit them together in combat.
“Once such an operation runs into trouble, it would quickly escalate into a full-scale conflict, with extremely high political and military risk,” said Chen Kuan-ting, a lawmaker of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party.
Taiwan’s layered air-defence and early-warning systems meant any air assault or special-operations infiltration effort would risk detection as it crossed the Taiwan Strait, foreshadowing escalation, he added.
American Air Dominance
The United States showcased its forces’ battle-tested air dominance with last weekend’s operation to extract Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife.
Its military controlled the skies with stealth fighters, jets that jammed enemy defences and covert reconnaissance drones and satellites feeding commanders real-time intelligence.
By contrast, the PLA “still has clear gaps in real joint-operations experience, electro-magnetic and electronic-warfare capabilities, and actual combat validation of high-risk missions,” said Chen.
China’s defence ministry did not immediately respond to faxed questions from Reuters.
China, which claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, has not ruled out using force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan’s government rejects China’s claims.
“Operationally, while the PLA is in recent times trying to get up to speed with force integration, it is still baby steps compared to what the Americans have for decades been accumulating,” said Singapore-based security scholar Collin Koh.
Taiwan’s Sovereignty
Taiwan is determined to defend its sovereignty and boost its defence, President Lai Ching-te said last month, after Beijing fired rockets towards Taiwan as part of its latest military drills.
The drills surrounding Taiwan – the most extensive to date – were accompanied by strong messaging from Chinese officials and the military.
“Any external forces that attempt to intervene in the Taiwan issue or interfere in China’s internal affairs will surely smash their heads bloody against the iron walls of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army,” China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said in a statement.
In October, Lai unveiled a multi-layered air-defence system called “T-Dome”.
It is intended to be similar to Israel’s “Iron Dome”, with a more efficient and “sensor-to-shooter” mechanism for a higher kill rate that integrates weaponry from Taiwan-developed Sky Bow missiles to U.S.-supplied HIMARS rocket systems.
In July, Taiwan’s military staged a drill to protect Taipei’s main airport from a hostile landing.
Su Tzu-yun, a researcher at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Security, described significant defences around Taipei, including long-range missiles in nearby mountains, shorter-range weapons at the Tamsui River entrance and military police equipped with shoulder-fired Stinger missiles.
“Altogether, this forms a complete defensive perimeter,” Su said.
Inspiration From Maduro’s Extraction?
While military attaches say China has war-gamed extraction operations in Taipei in a broad range of military options to take control of Taiwan, some Chinese online users cited the U.S. action in Venezuela as inspiration.
“The Venezuelan situation has provided us a solution for unifying Taiwan,” said one user on the X-like microblogging site Weibo.
“First, use special operations to arrest Lai Ching-te, then immediately announce the takeover of Taiwan, issue new identity cards … and achieve a swift and decisive victory.”
Chen, who sits on the foreign affairs and defence committee of Taiwan’s parliament, dismissed such remarks as “fantasy” and other analysts said any such attempt would quickly face hard military realities.
China had added aircraft to replicate platforms such as Boeing’s EA-18G Growler electronic-warfare jet and Northrop Grumman’s NOC.N E-2D Advanced Hawkeye command and early warning aircraft, but their precise capabilities had yet to be delineated, Koh said.
(with inputs from Reuters)
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