Liberal party candidate Lee Jae-myung is projected to win South Korea’s snap presidential election on Tuesday by a significant margin, according to exit poll data. His anticipated victory marks a major political shift following public outrage over martial law, which led to the removal of the previous president.
Results of the surveys by the country’s broadcasters were released after nearly 80% of the country’s 44.39 million eligible voters had cast their ballots.
South Koreans are hoping to put six months of turmoil from ousted leader Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law decree behind them and for a reversal in the ebbing fortunes of Asia’s fourth-largest economy.
The joint exit poll by broadcasters KBS, MBC and SBS, which has in previous elections mostly been in line with the final results, put Lee on 51.7% and his conservative rival Kim Moon-soo on 39.3%.
A separate survey by broadcaster JTBC put Lee on 50.6% and Kim on 39.4%. Channel A also predicted a Lee win by similar margins.
After being impeached by parliament in December, Yoon was removed from office by the Constitutional Court on April 4, less than three years into his five-year term, triggering the snap election that now stands to remake the country’s political leadership and foreign policies.
‘Judgment Day’
Lee had called the election “judgment day” against the previous Yoon administration and the conservative People Power Party, accusing them of having condoned the martial law attempt by not fighting harder to thwart it and even trying to save Yoon’s presidency.
“hope the issues surrounding martial law are addressed more clearly and transparently,” said 40-year-old Seoul resident Kim Yong-Hyun. “There are still many things that don’t make sense, and I’d like to see them properly resolved.”
Park Chan-dae, acting leader of DP, told KBS that the party was holding out for the votes to be officially counted, but that the projections suggest voters rejected the martial law attempt and are hoping for an improvement in their livelihoods.
“I think people made a fiery judgment against the insurrection regime,” he said.
The winner must tackle challenges including a society deeply scarred by divisions made more obvious since the attempt at military rule, and an export-heavy economy reeling from unpredictable protectionist moves by the United States, a major trading partner and a security ally.
If the exit polls’ projections are accurate, Lee should be on course to officially become president when the National Election Commission declares the winner sometime on Wednesday, immediately taking power including becoming commander-in-chief of the military.
Need For Change
Both Lee Jae-myung and his conservative rival Kim Moon-soo pledged change for the country, saying a political system and economic model set up during its rise as a budding democracy and industrial power are no longer fit for purpose.
Their proposals for investment in innovation and technology often overlapped, but Lee advocated more equity and help for mid- to low-income families while Kim campaigned on giving businesses more freedom from regulations and labour strife.
Overshadowing any social policy initiatives, however, was Yoon’s brief attempt to impose martial law that has loomed large over the poll.
Kim was Yoon’s labour minister when the former president declared martial law on December 3.
He has branded Lee a “dictator” and his Democratic Party a “monster,” warning if the former human rights lawyer becomes president, nothing will stop them from working together to amend laws simply because they do not like them.
‘Polarised’
“The economy has gotten so much worse since December 3, not just for me but I hear that from everybody,” Kim Kwang-ma, 81, said. “And we as a people have become so polarised… I wish we could come together so that Korea can develop again.”
There were no female candidates running in Tuesday’s election for the first time in 18 years.
Despite polls showing wide gaps between young men and women, gender equality was not among the key policy issues put forward during this election, a stark contrast from the 2022 vote.
“One thing I am a bit frustrated about with mainstream candidates whether Lee Jae-myung or other conservative candidates is they lack policy on women or minority groups,” said Kwon Seo-hyun, 18, a university freshman and first-time voter who went out to the streets for anti-Yoon protests following his martial law.
Lee was always favoured to win, leading Kim by 14 percentage points with 49% public support in a Gallup Korea survey released ahead of the election, although Kim had narrowed an even wider gap at the start of the campaign on May 12.
Ballots will be sorted and counted by machine first, then triple-checked by election officials by hand to verify accuracy.
It was not clear when the official result would emerge. In 2022, Lee conceded to Yoon at around 3 a.m. the day after the vote in the closest presidential race in the country’s history, which was decided by a margin of less than 1 percentage point.
The National Election Commission is scheduled to certify the result on Wednesday and the winner’s inauguration is expected within hours. There will be no presidential transition as the office has remained vacant since Yoon was removed.
(With inputs from Reuters)
