On Sunday, Nepal’s government banned the assembly of five or more persons in Lalitpur, the country’s fourth most populous city. Days earlier, a similar ban had been imposed in the capital Kathmandu.
Coming in the wake of the thousands of people who turned out to welcome former King Gyanendra at Tribhuvan International Airport on March 9, it left the impression Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s Communist government (in coalition with the Nepali Congress of Sher Bahadur Deuba), had been left unsettled by the public display of affection for the ex-king.
“He (former king) asks for people’s support but it is not clear for what purpose, he needs people’s support. Come into politics, you can ask votes from people,” Oli said. The Maoists who had waged a decade long civil war against the monarchy, were incensed.
“The regressive forces have been encouraged because there is no credibility of this government,” said Maoist leader and former prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal. “Those who might have never dreamed of restoring the monarchy even in their closed rooms are now hitting the street and they have made organised efforts.”
“Our constitution has established a norm that democracy is equal for both Prachanda and former king Gyanendra Shah. Don’t treat this as weakness,” he warned.
The Royalist View
In the vanguard of the public welcome was the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), which is committed to restoring the monarchy abolished in 2008. The RPP has in recent years made crucial electoral gains.
Clearly, the NC and Oli’s Nepal Communist Party – Unified Marxist Leninist (NCP-UML), had put two and two together and saw wisdom in nipping any further public displays of affection for the king. It was an uncomfortable reminder to them that while the monarchy had ruled Nepal for over 200 years, the elected political class appears to have lost the trust of their people within 17 years of the monarchy being ended.
The former king appears to have read the political tea leaves closely and may have been waiting for precisely such an opportunity. In recent months, he has become increasingly critical of the political parties and their leaders, deriding them for poor governance and widespread corruption.
“We call upon all the Nepalis to join our endeavours to protect the nation, to maintain national unity and to strive for prosperity,” he said in a video message posted on social media on the eve of the Democracy Day, February 19.
Pro-monarchy forces believe they must take advantage of the current churn and tap the discontent among common people towards their current rulers.
“If we can cultivate this discontent, it will grow in people’s movement helping to restore the monarchy,” said Mohan Shrestha, spokesperson of the RPP.
There are however, few examples of the monarchy being restored. It did happen in the UK in the 15th century, Spain saw its monarch restored twice, once in 1874 and then again in 1975, and in 1993 Cambodia’s Norodom Sihanouk was restored to the throne albeit with severely restricted powers.
“The environment for reinstatement of the monarchy in the country is increasingly favourable,” Phanindra Pathak, an aide of the former king told StratNewsGlobal. “I am confident that the monarchy in Nepal will be reinstated and it is a matter of time when it will happen. The international press has also recognized this and they covered it (Gyanendra’s welcome) widely which was unthinkable earlier.”
Rajan Karki, another aide of Gyanendra is also optimistic about his return to the throne.
“No political leader is as popular as the former king,” he claimed. “Political leaders are increasingly unpopular because of their own actions.”
How To Restore Monarchy
But the more immediate issue for the monarchists is the constitutional pathway to restoring the monarchy. The constitution of 2015 made by the constituent assembly declared the country a federal republic. Phanindra Pathak believes the monarchy could be restored based on the Doctrine of Necessity.
“When the former king restored the dissolved parliament amid people’s movement in 2006, there was no provision in the constitution allowing the king to restore parliament,” Pathak pointed out. “Similarly, the monarchy can be restored by following the Doctrine of Necessity.”
Monarchists are now calling for a new agreement among major political forces including that of the former king. They claim that Nepal’s political parties that had protested against the king’s authoritarian rule in 2006, didn’t keep their promises to preserve the institution of monarchy despite reaching a “gentlemen’s agreement” with Gyanendra on April 24, 2006, before he reinstated parliament.
“Either political parties have to implement that gentleman’s agreement reached or people will bring back the king to rule again,” Pathak claimed.
But other leaders say no such understanding was reached with the former monarch and have asked for evidence of this “gentleman’s agreement”.
Pathak insists that “The former king and the then protesting major political parties had reached an understanding to continue a constitutional monarchy.”
With popular support for restoration of monarchy appearing to be building up, pro-monarchy forces have demanded a new agreement signed by all stakeholders, that would ensure the monarchy a place in the political framework.
“A genuine negotiation among key political stakeholders is now necessary that will pave the way for restoration of monarchy and the Hindu nation, both enjoying popular support,” said the RPP’s Shrestha.
He warned that anything less would result in street protests that could be devastating for the current rulers. But political analysts say the high turnout of people to greet the former king for one day in Kathmandu, does not mean they would continue to hit the streets demanding the return of the king.
“Obviously, the popularity of the former king appears to have grown but it is not a reflection of the wider public support for monarchy,” former lawmaker and political analyst Hari Roka told StratNewsGlobal. “I think majority of people still support the republican setup instead of the monarchy.”
Politicians Failures
That could be true but it’s no less true that Nepal’s republican leaders have singularly failed in giving direction and foundation to Nepal’s economy.
“The lack of economic opportunity has been main reason behind many people’s frustration,” said Arun Subedi, former foreign policy advisor to NC leader and then prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba. “There is an ample possibility that current dissatisfaction towards the political parties and their leaders could result in unorganized mass protests.”
Nepal remains one the poorest countries in the world with per capita income less than $1500. With employment opportunities scarce, more than 741,000 people left the country for foreign shores over the last one year. Many young people are also leaving the country for study abroad and may never return.
“People are frustrated and pro-monarchy forces will try to capitalize on this frustration to garner support to re-establish the monarchy,” said Subedi.
Although Prime Minister Oli has challenged Gyanendra to contest elections, Rajan Karki says “The king is not the institution that contests elections. Contesting elections is the job of political parties and their leaders.”
“I have got an indication from insiders that once the monarchy is restored, King Gyanendra will abdicate the throne for his grandson,” Karki said.
In fact, the late prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala, who was also involved in the mass revolt against the monarchy in 2006, had floated the idea of preserving the monarchy through the ‘baby king’ referring to Hridayandra Shah, grandson of Gyanendra.
Pathak did not confirm if there were any discussions on this plan, for in his view, the priority was to restore the monarchy. “It is then up to the king to decide what to do regarding succession,” he said.
International, Neighbours Reactions
What about the international community or Nepal’s neighbours? How could they react to the possibility of the monarchy being restored?
“I think international players can no longer avoid the ex-king as they have noticed the popular support for him,” said Shrestha.
Rajan Karki is more specific: “How three key foreign powers—India, China and the US would respond to the idea of restoring the monarchy is uncertain,” he acknowledged.
Some people argue that India under the current BJP dispensation supported by the RSS, could be beneficial for Nepal’s monarchists as ideologically, they represent conservative forces.
It is apparent that the current Indian establishment has not liked Nepal, a Hindu majority country, turning secular. Pro-monarchy forces in Nepal have been calling for restoration of both monarchy and Hindu nationhood. While the BJP has not openly called for Nepal dumping secularism and returning to its Hindu roots, many RSS affiliated people have called for precisely that.
Gyanendra has also met Yogi Adityanath, the powerful chief minister of Uttar Pradesh several times. He is head of the Gorakhnath Mutt, which has a wide following in Nepal.
But, Roka says that over the last two decades, the influence of other international players, notably China, has grown rapidly in Nepal.
“Even if New Delhi’s current establishment support restoration of monarchy, it is not clear whether China will accept it,” said Roka.
Subedi also thinks that China has found a natural ally among Nepal’s communist parties that are staunchly anti-monarchy.
“So, China’s support for monarchy is not a foregone conclusion,” he said although the monarchy had established strong bonds with the Chinese establishment.
As for the US, Subedi believes the inward-looking policy of President Donald Trump, could leave that government largely indifferent to the goings on in Nepal.
Prithvi Shrestha is the Executive Editor of Arthik Abhiyan Daily
