The escalating tech war between the US and China is redrawing the global technology map—and India finds itself both exposed and empowered by the fallout. Aniruddh Suri, nonresident scholar at Carnegie India and author of The Great Tech Game, laid out the implications in this edition of The Gist.
What began as a trade war has now become a full-spectrum contest over critical technologies. From advanced AI chips and semiconductors to rare earth exports, both superpowers are raising the stakes. The US, once focused on a “small yard, high fence” approach, is now widening its tech lead over China through expanded export controls and investment restrictions. China has responded in kind, tightening control over rare earth minerals—essential inputs for global supply chains.
For India, these moves present both risks and openings. While India isn’t yet producing cutting-edge chips, it could face downstream impacts—such as price hikes and supply bottlenecks. But Suri also sees potential: “There’s an opportunity here for India to step up, especially in areas like chip design and rare earth processing.”
On the US-India front, the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) has been viewed with skepticism, with some calling it symbolic. But Suri is more optimistic. He notes that under the Biden administration, iCET made “substantial progress” in areas like tech co-development and defense engines. Even if a new US administration slows things down, he believes the deeper drivers—strategic alignment, shared talent pools, and geopolitical urgency—will sustain momentum.
Key areas of cooperation include defence tech, semiconductors, undersea domain awareness, and space. “We should not get complacent,” he cautions. “The fundamentals are strong, but they need to translate into specific, programmatic outcomes.”
The message is clear: India has the talent, the timing, and the trust to become a key player in this shifting tech order. But seizing that opportunity will require focus, coordination, and political will—on both sides.
