Can U.S. President Donald Trump pull his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin away from China? How does the recent public spat between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy impact Trump’s stated aim to end the war in Ukraine, which entered its fourth year last month?
Those are some of the questions we asked the Convenor of NatStrat (a premier strategic thinktank) Pankaj Saran, former Deputy NSA who’s also served as India’s ambassador to Russia, and Amit Kumar, a Staff Research Analyst at the China desk of the Indo-Pacific Studies Programme at the Takshashila Institution, whose research spans the intersection of the economy, technology and security, in the latest episode of The Gist.
Here are some of the takeaways from the interview:
Donald Trump has never shied away from bold moves, and his attempt to broker peace in Ukraine is no different. The former U.S. president is positioning himself as the ultimate dealmaker, promising an end to the war if he returns to the White House. A quiet but persistent backchannel between the U.S. and Russia has been operational for weeks, showing signs of progress.
However, Trump’s motivations diverge significantly from Putin’s. While Trump views an end to the Ukraine war as a way to restore U.S. global primacy and challenge China’s growing dominance, Putin sees a potential opportunity to exit a costly and prolonged conflict.
Despite their tactical alignment, Russia remains a long-standing institutional adversary of the U.S., much like Pakistan remains for India. Even if a temporary alignment is achieved, historical trends suggest such realignments are fleeting.
The recent Oval Office spat between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy underscored Ukraine’s diminished negotiating power.
The incident was not just a political spectacle—it was a turning point which underlined a shift in the transatlantic alliance, raising questions about the traditional U.S.-Europe security contract.
For Putin, this development is crucial. If Trump successfully undermines Western unity on Ukraine, it could create openings for Russia to negotiate a more favourable outcome.
At the same time, a Trump-brokered peace deal would need to include Russian compromises. The geopolitical implications of these talks extend far beyond Ukraine, influencing NATO, European security, and the broader global order.
While the West has worked to isolate Russia through sanctions, China has emerged as Moscow’s economic lifeline. In a dramatic shift, China has replaced the European Union as Russia’s top trading partner.
This shift has created a power imbalance. Russia’s exports to China are heavily energy-dependent—80% of its sales—whereas China’s exports to Russia are far more diversified.
While China can source energy from multiple suppliers, Russia has far fewer alternative buyers. This asymmetry gives Beijing significant leverage over Moscow.
Beyond trade, Russia’s reliance on China is deepening in critical areas. Since losing access to Western dual-use technology following the Ukraine invasion, Russia now sources 90% of its essential machine tool imports from China—a crucial factor for its military-industrial sector.
For Trump, who sees China as America’s primary global adversary, and accuses Beijing of exploiting globalization to weaken the West. this dynamic presents both a challenge and an opportunity. His strategy is not to sever Russia-China ties entirely, but to offer Moscow strategic alternatives that make it less dependent on Beijing.
One of Trump’s boldest ideas could be a trilateral summit involving the U.S., Russia, and China. Such a move would address military budgets, nuclear deterrence, and great-power competition, setting the stage for a major diplomatic realignment. However, convincing Putin to distance himself from Xi Jinping is easier said than done.
China, for its part, may not be overly concerned. Beijing’s economic and geopolitical interests are deeply embedded in the global financial system, and while a U.S.-Russia rapprochement would alter the balance, it would not fundamentally shake China’s long-term trajectory.
India, which has maintained a delicate balancing act between Russia and the West, would likely welcome a less China-dependent Russia. A weakened China-led bloc reduces Beijing’s geopolitical clout, creating more strategic space for New Delhi. India’s primary concern remains countering China’s influence, and any disruption to Beijing’s alliance system serves that goal.
Both Russia and China are actively seeking improved relations with the West, but the critical question remains: Who will move first?
If Trump’s strategy gains traction, Russia could be enticed away from China with the right mix of economic and security incentives. However, history suggests that these shifts are rarely permanent, and geopolitical realities could eventually pull Moscow and Beijing back together.
A crucial test of this strategy will be Trump’s ability to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war.
Trump’s attempt to pull Putin away from China is one of the most ambitious foreign policy gambits in recent history. If successful, it could fundamentally reshape global alignments. However, the durability of any such shift remains highly uncertain.
Will Trump’s deal-making skills be enough to alter decades of geopolitical inertia, or will the deep-seated forces driving Russia and China together prove too strong to overcome? Watch the full interview here to get an idea of some of the possible outcomes, as well as insights into the dynamics at play from two veteran domain experts.
