French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou will use special constitutional powers to pass the 2025 budget on Monday, triggering a crucial no-confidence vote later this week that will decide whether his minority government survives.
Pressure is mounting on France to approve a much-delayed budget for the year, with business leaders, European Union partners and voters showing impatience with a political class that has struggled to overcome its confrontational culture.
France has plunged into political instability since President Emmanuel Macron’s surprise decision to call a snap election in June backfired, with voters delivering a hung parliament just as an unexpected hole in public finances emerged.
Bayrou, appointed in December to become the fourth French Prime Minister of 2024, is trying to avoid the fate of his predecessor Michel Barnier.
Barnier’s short-lived administration fell when left-wing and far-right lawmakers banded together to vote him down.
Ahead of the vote, he has made concessions to the Socialist party to ensure they will not support the no-confidence motion scheduled for Wednesday, allowing more money for hospitals and teacher recruitments in a compromise reached last week.
But the Socialists, under pressure from their hard-left allies France Unbowed, are divided over whether to let the French Prime Minister survive.
Marine Le Pen’s far-right lawmakers have also threatened to trigger his downfall.
“Making good on these threats would be angrily rejected by the French people,” Bayrou told La Tribune Dimanche in an interview over the weekend.
“These two parties know that as well as I do.”
Only 24% of French voters think the left should push through a motion of no-confidence against Bayrou, while 74% say the Socialist party should find compromises, according to an Odoxa poll for Public Senat published on January 28.
The collapse of the Barnier government in early December meant France was unable to pass a budget before the year-end deadline, creating economic uncertainty for households and businesses alike.
The turmoil has already cost France 12 billion euros ($12.4 billion), or 175 euros per person, in large part by depressing economic growth, according to the government.
Over the weekend, the Socialists came under pressure from the influential former Socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin.
“Voting for the no-confidence motion would not be responsible,” he said in an interview with France 5.
The budget includes tax rises and spending cuts that would bring the French budget deficit to 5.4% of GDP from six per cent in 2024.
