State Of China’s Economy
Just how badly is China’s economy doing? More than half of China’s provinces have missed their self-set growth targets. That includes the so-called prosperous province of Hainan, says former intelligence officer and China watcher Jayadeva Ranade. At least 100 protests have been recorded across China and some of them have escalated. The economic situation is bad enough for people to implicitly criticise Xi Jinping’s policies, which is a dangerous thing to do in China, he adds.
Ranade refers to a lengthy article in the People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s mouthpiece, published under a pseudonym used by the Central Economic Affairs Commission. It talked about how little has been done for private entrepreneurs who are really the engines of growth. That’s something that goes against Xi Jinping’s line because he’s pushing for state-owned enterprises.
“I think there is a lot of discontent, made worse probably by Xi Jinping targeting bankers and financial regulators many of whom ended up in prison,” according to Ranade. The Chinese propaganda machinery has pointed to what it calls agricultural woes in the United States. It’s pinning its hopes on the American consumer who it thinks will complain about it. Even a 10 per cent tariff will be tough on China, says Ranade.
Trump And China
U.S. President Trump has made contradictory statements when it comes to China. One the one hand, he has referred to China as a rival and threatened tariffs. On the other, he has called Chinese President Xi Jinping a friend.
But key appointees in his administration are negative on China. Be it Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth or NSA Mike Waltz.
The only people who may try and sort of moderate Trump’s actions would be the big business in the U.S. who are committed to making money out of China and are invested in China, says Ranade.
“Unless Trump strikes some kind of a deal, I think they’re on a course where the competition is going to escalate. I think Trump and Xi Jinping are going to collect their friends, allies or partners together in their own corners.”
The Russia Factor
Can China and Russia together pose a threat to the United States?
“Trump has spoken about ending the war in Ukraine. If he succeeds, he releases Russia from being captive to China. They don’t like it but today they have no option. And he can, in a way, throw a lifeline to Putin and say that,” according to Ranade.
That frees Trump to do a “reverse Nixon” on China, which would worry Xi Jinping. The move may just give fodder to those in the Communist Party who had opposed Xi’s policy of backing Putin. “I think if Trump is able to push that through, China is going to have an even rougher time. And my hunch is he will try it.”
