As Donald Trump gets set to take charge of the White House, there’s both anticipation and fear. One thought dominating the discourse among political analysts worldwide is the impact a Trump presidency will have on international relations.
Trump Administration 2.0
The second Donald Trump White House will see the same Donald Trump but a different White House, says strategic thinker MJ Akbar. When one thinks about Trump, the first thought that comes to mind is turbulence. Speaking to StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale, Akbar said he believes Trump uses turbulence as a strategy in order to establish calm on his terms. “He (Trump) does not have a vested interest in turbulence as a permanent fact.”
The Gaza Deal
Trump’s triumphant claims of having established some degree of calm in West Asia means he was not invested in war as a continuing fact, says Akbar.
The Biden administration has acknowledged that Trump’s emissary had a role to play in the Gaza ceasefire deal. “I think that he’s interested in establishing peace on what would be his White House’s terms. He will try and do that almost immediately. He loves breaking taboos because he doesn’t recognise them.”
‘Practical’ Approach
Akbar believes the upcoming four years of the Trump administration may not quite be what many think. He cites Trump’s approach to the Ukraine war to buttress his point. Why was it taboo to meet Putin, he asks.
“You may or may not agree with what Putin did in Ukraine but is the way forward not meeting him or not talking to him?” It’s neither feasible nor practical to have a resolution to Ukraine by simply deciding that President Putin doesn’t exist. I think that four years of Trump will be less dramatic than his opponents think and more dramatic than what the calmists think, says Akbar.
The Musk Factor
Among the staunchest backers of Donald Trump is billionaire businessman Elon Musk. The latter has pumped in millions of dollars into the Trump campaign. Trump has roped him (and Vivek Ramaswamy) to improve government efficiency. Many feel Musk may have a disproportionate influence over the incoming administration.
Akbar doesn’t think so. You have to first understand that gratitude in politics has a very short shelf life. “I’m sure Trump is very deeply grateful for whatever dollars (Musk has) put in. But I don’t think he is going to permit anyone to disrupt or destabilize his term in office.”
The U.S. government is not a corporate entity; it’s larger and much more complex. Musk and Ramaswamy have no executive powers. They have been tasked with recommending how to cut the size of the government, not to run it or change its nature, says Akbar.
Trump Administration And India
India has to see any administration first from the periscope of Indian interests, says Akbar. According to him, Indian interests are guided by Prime Minister Modi’s realistic vision. He cites specific instances based on geography. The arc of neighbourhood is the primary arc. You have Quad and West Asia. The Indian Navy now operates militarily in the Red Sea.
India’s interests lie primarily towards achieving an equitable economic goal, which can be a reality by 2047. Whatever alliances are most helpful towards achieving that goal will drive India’s foreign policy and domestic policy, says Akbar.
To that extent, superpowers will have to fit in within the framework of India’s vision and need. India will have to see where its interests matches that of the Trump White House.
