‘Turkey, Israel And US Behind Assad’s Ouster’

The events in Syria are much more of a threat to West Asia than the events in Gaza, which is more localised, believes Rajeev Agarwal, a retired colonel who served as a Director in the Ministry of External Affairs and in Military Intelligence (International Relations).

And any instability or upheaval in West Asia would have a major impact on India, says Colonel Agarwal, who’s also a former research fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, and has over 15 years of experience in international geopolitics and security.

In this edition of The Gist, the flagship program of StratNews Global, Col. Agarwal traces the events which led to the unexpected ouster of the Assad regime from Syria by a rag-tag rebel group with links to radical Islamist outfits like the Al Qaeda and ISIS.

“For Iran, which was a major player in the war in Gaza, Syria was a critical hub for anything it had to do in Israel,” notes Agarwal, who writes extensively on West Asia and other issues for various publications and digital platforms in India and abroad. .

“The rebel offensive which began on 27th November is no surprise, but what is surprising is the speed of the offensive,” he says. “From 27th November to 8th December, the rebels managed to overrun the entire Syrian territory, including all major towns and breach Damascus,” forcing President Bashar al-Assad to flee to Moscow.

“On 26th November, Israel and Hezbollah signed a ceasefire, and on 27th the offensive begins in Syria. The rebels obviously did not do this on their own, because if the three disparate groups had such capabilities, they would done it a lot earlier,” he said..

So who helped them?

Turkey was getting irritated with events along the border with Syria, and had even cautioned Assad over rebels causing trouble in Turkey, notes Col Agarwal.

“Israel and the US definitely have a very big hand in this because if Syria is removed from the equation, Israel can definitely take care of all the security issues in its region without Iran having any direct influence over events there, whether it is Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Jihad or whatever,” he said. “Taking Syria out was therefore very important for Israel.”

So Turkey, Israel and US played a major part in the events that led to Assad’s ouster, he said, noting that ‘the day Assad got ousted and flew out to Moscow, (Israeli President Benjamin) Netanyahu went live on television to declare it was a historical day for the entire region, not just for Israel.”

And “the very next day, he makes his first appearance at the trial court where he faces charges of corruption etc, and says he was looking at larger issues which impact not only the security of the country but the entire region, and insists the charges against him are frivolous. He was clearly waiting for this moment.”

So, “While none of us anticipated what happened in Syria, it was clearly a well calculated and orchestrated move by the trio of Turkey, Israel and US,” Col. Agarwal said.

So how come the intelligence agencies of the world did not see this coming, just like they apparently missed the October 7 Hamas attack last year on Israel, or the uprising in Bangladesh?

What do the events in Syria and the ensuing insecurity in the region mean for Iran, and further west, India?

Will the success of an Islamist group linked to the Al Qaeda and ISIS in Syria inspire terrorist outfits elsewhere, particularly in Afghanistan-Pakistan, or Bangladesh?

Watch the full interview to get the answers to those questions and much more from a veteran intelligence office.