India is on track in meeting climate commitments despite numerous challenges, and has reduced emissions by over two per cent every year since 2005.
But, in order to achieve the 2030 target, India needs to expedite this up to 2.7 per cent a year.
According to news reports, India, along with China, is one of the three largest producers of greenhouse gases but it is one among half a dozen G20 economies on track to meet their climate commitments.
G20 members include the world’s major economies, representing 85% of global GDP, 75% of international trade, and two-thirds of the world’s population.
While most countries have not been able to keep pledges on reducing emissions, India seems to be doing what it promised.
Almost all UN members have come up with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
The NDCs are a set of targets and measures that a country will work towards to keep global warming below two degree Celsius from pre-industrial times.
The ideal scenario is to limit it to 1.5 degree Celsius. Current NDCs have a 2030 deadline.
The next set is due in early 2025.
Notably, most climate pledges are not strong enough for less than two degree Celsius.
According to news reports, of the G 20 nations, India has the most delayed target for net zero which is 2070.
India must cut emissions by 66 mn tonnes every year but IMF estimates that under current policies, India’s emissions will rise 41 per cent by 2030 and keep growing up to 2040.
Extreme weather is yet another challenge for India, according to the UN Emissions Gap Report 2024, UN Climate Horizons.
Compared to richer countries, extreme weather poses a bigger risk for India.
According to projections in the UN Emissions Gap Report, there will be more hot days in a year.
The number of hot days- with temperature over 35 degree Celsius, is likely to rise.
On this front, India will faces a bigger risk, according to projections.
By 2039, India will face 97 hot days, over three months in a year, from the historical number of 80 days.
On the other hand, China will experience only seven hot days in a year.
According to the projections, Australia will face 26 hot days- less than a month in a year, from a historical figure of 19 days.
The United States will also face 23 hot days – a little over three weeks in a year.
Moreover, the average annual temperature could rise by almost a degree by 2040.
Here too, India will be the most affected compared to Australia, China, UK and US.
By 2040, India’s average annual temperature will rise to 26.3 degree Celsius from a historical figure of 25.4.
India has locked away seven billion tonnes of carbon in its trees.
But rising temperatures affect carbon sinks.
A study says that while India’s forest canopy went up seven per cent in two decades, their carbon absorption capacity declined by over six per cent.
The report also looks at India’s performance in augmenting its power capacity.
India is close to keeping its promise on power capacity.
“India’s share of power generation capacity from fossil fuels is down to 54 per cent.”
The UN report says that India is close to the fifty per cent target by 2030.
Within the non-fossil fuel space, solar power has grown from two per cent to 20 per cent.
For actual generation, India still depends on coal, oil and gas.
Their use in electricity generation has grown by more than four per cent, a year on average in the past decade.
