In 1987, Donald Trump, a successful entrepreneur, penned his thoughts in a book titled ‘TRUMP The Art of The Deal’. Though written from a business perspective it offers insight into his aptitude, thought process and persona.
In the book he states that when in office “There is rarely a day with fewer than 50 calls and often it runs into over a hundred. In between I have at least a dozen meetings. The majority occur on the spur of the moment and a few of them last longer than fifteen minutes”.
It reflects his approach to work – quick decision-making with no time wasted on protocols or procedures. He writes, “I try to learn from the past, but I plan for the future by focusing exclusively on the present”. Among other points he makes:
- Thinking big.
- “I believe in the power of negative thinking. I happen to be very conservative in business. I always go into the deal anticipating the worst. The good will always take care of itself”.
- “I also protect myself by being flexible. I never get too attached to one deal or one approach. Once I have made a deal I always come up with half a dozen approaches to making it work”.
- Trump states that “Sylvester Stallone is a genius purely by instincts. He knows what the pubic wants and he delivers it. I like to think I have that instinct. I do my own surveys and draw my own conclusions. I am a great believer in asking everyone for an opinion before taking a decision. It’s a natural reflex. I ask, ask and ask until I begin to get a gut feeling about some thing and that’s when I make a decision.”
- Trump believes in exploiting the leverage he has or creates. “The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. The best thing you can do is deal from strength and leverage is the biggest strength you have. Leverage is something the other guy wants. Or better yet needs. Or best simply can’t do without. Leverage often requires imagination and salesmanship.”
- The “press is always hungry for a good story, and the more sensational the better. If you are a little bit different, or a little outrageous, or if you do things that are bold or controversial, the press is going to write you. I don’t mind controversy and my deals tend to be somewhat ambitious”.
- He writes “I am very good to people who are good to me. But when people treat me badly, unfairly or try to take advantage of me, my general attitude, all my life, has been fight back very hard. The risk is that you’ll make a bad situation worse, and certainly I don’t recommend this approach to anyone. But if you are fighting for something you believe in, even at the cost of alienating some people, things usually workout for the best”.
- Deliver the goods. “ You can’t con people for long”. Trust and faith are important to him.
- Contain the costs. He says “I believe in spending what you have to. But I also believe in not spending more than you should”. He is intrinsically a businessman and not a politician.
- Have Fun. “Anything can change, without warning, and that is why I try not to take any of what has happened too seriously. The real excitement is playing the game”
Basically, a businessman who thinks through the prism of deals and benefits. Averse to being cheated or taken for granted . A frank and forthright approach may work better with him. Appears to be fond of those who are pushers with utter disregard to the adversities that comes with it – possibly the reason for his appreciating the likes of Modi, Putin, Netanyahu and even Kim Jong Un.
A super intelligent man who thrives in chaos and who creates a maze of irrationality leading to an image of unpredictability, intended to keep his opponents guessing and ultimately falling prey to his leverages. A master at exploiting media – sensationalism, controversy, image of haphazardness and unreasonableness appear to be a part of the game.
Power of Ideas
This time, Trump’s campaign had the weight of 50 of America’s leading conservative think tanks, who laid down in granular detail what his objectives should be.
- Restore the family as the centerpiece of American life and protect our children.
- Dismantle the administrative state and return self-governance to the American people.
- Defend nation’s sovereignty, borders, and bounty against global threats.
- Secure God-given individual rights to live freely—what our Constitution calls “the Blessings of Liberty.”
The China factor figures very prominently as a rival and a competitor that needs to be neutralized. The document says it is essential to completely decouple from China so the US can regain economic and industrial dominance. Iran and Middle-East concerns also find prominence. India finds a mention only once and that too on the fringes of the Middle East issue as a probable stake holder.
This document comes through when he spoke recently of resetting all government departments and agencies to enhance efficiency, remove corruption, eliminate the hold of the deep state and agendas harming the nation.
America No. 1
Trump’s call of making ‘America first and great again’, relates to all that the US has lost to others in trade and commerce, which should be reversed. Internal systems that have been compromised by “agenda driven insiders” need to be set right, only those outsiders who add value are acceptable but not at the cost of originals or true Americans.
“I will ban refugee resettlement from terror infested areas like the Gaza Strip, and we will seal our border and bring back the travel ban…We’re not taking them from infested countries.”
Implications for the World
All stakeholders will face enormous pressure. Trade has to be on terms favorable to the US and financial gains by any other nation shall have to be below the threshold that impact US interests. All economic and security assistance provided to any nation or a group comes at a financial cost or offset – for Trump all engagements and agreements are ‘Deals’.
As an entrepreneur, Trump is not averse to trade with those on the “other side”. But he also says, “I use sanctions very powerfully against countries that deserve it, and then I take them off because look – you’re losing Iran, you’re losing Russia. China is out there trying to get their currency, to be the dominant currency.
You’re losing so many countries because there’s so much conflict with all of these countries that you’re gonna lose that, and we can’t lose that. I want to use sanctions as little as possible.”
The conditionalities however remain. He says “I would like to see Iran be very successful. The only thing is, they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”
Trump’s views on ongoing conflicts appear more money driven. War with Iran is loss of money, supporting Ukraine is loss of money, providing security cover under NATO arrangements needs to be paid for etc.
All arrangements need to be viewed as a ‘deal’ unless it directly threatens America or Americans. Geo-economics has priority over Geopolitics and all leverages including military may be used.
Trump is unlikely to interfere where there are limited or no perceived stakes for him, for example he wants the Ukraine Russia war to end without pressure on Russia to vacate captured areas. He has apparently given a free hand to Israel’s PM Netanyahu but wants the conflict resolved before he assumes office.
Implications for India
As Sino-US tensions grow, so will India’s strategic relevance to the US. The bilateral strategic partnership has continued to evolve with Washington’s Indo-Pacific focus. Anything that is anti-China will find Trump and Republican support. As Russia does not appear to be a priority concern for Trump, for the time being, the India-Russia equation is unlikely to create any adversities but would have to be handled with caution.
On the economic front, the big market India provides in all the possible domains will not be lost sight of, however, there will be concerns because the ‘Deal Maker’ will look for the best which may not completely suit India and may entail political compromises in the national interest.
US pressure may force China to look for markets elsewhere including India and this may create avoidable trade imbalances plus friction points with the US – again the need to tread with caution. India is braced for Trump, the leadership knows best where to hedge and where to negotiate to get the best for the nation – it will be tumultuous but beneficial in the long run.
Lt Gen Vijay Singh was commissioned into the 9th Gurkha Rifles. He was Director-General Military Training & Staff Duties at Army Headquarters. Views expressed are his own
