Mongolia is aiming to increase trade with China by more than 10% this year, underscoring its growing economic reliance on its largest trading partner and the primary market for its coal and mineral exports.
During talks in Ulaanbaatar over the weekend, President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh told Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi that bilateral trade is expected to reach $20 billion this year. The visit marked Wang’s first trip to Mongolia in nearly four years.
That represents a jump of more than 10% from 2025, despite the Iran war constraining the economic outlook for the world’s second biggest economy at a time of languishing domestic demand.
Two-way trade fell to $17.7 billion last year from $18.3 billion in 2024, Chinese customs data shows.
In a joint statement on Monday, the neighbours agreed to boost economic and trade ties, but gave no specific target on trade.
Coal and Copper Drive Growth
Every 1% of growth in China’s economy can drive an increase of 4% in Mongolia’s exports and boost its economic growth by 0.6%, Wang told a press conference on Saturday after meeting his Mongolian counterpart, citing estimates by international bodies.
“The trade momentum is quite positive,” said Xu Tianchen, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “Mongolia’s copper output is rising, and China stands ready to take it.”
China’s demand for Mongolian coal is also likely to grow, he said, after a mining disaster killed 82 people in northern Shanxi, putting pressure on domestic coal supplies.
Landlocked Mongolia, sandwiched between China and Russia, exported more than 80 million metric tons of coal last year, almost all to its southern neighbour, Chinese customs data shows.
Deeper Economic and Strategic Ties
Connectivity will be further boosted by a second cross-border railway link now being built between the countries, Wang said.
“All eyes are on the completion of the Gashuunsukhait-Gantsmot border crossing railway, which will facilitate trade even further,” added Xu.
China will supply 1 million doses of vaccine to help Mongolia tackle a recent outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in its livestock, Wang said.
As ties grow, Khurelsukh pledged that Mongolia would refrain from any actions that harm China’s interests, regardless of relations with third countries.
(With inputs from Reuters)
