A military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan could carry the risk of nuclear escalation, with both sides likely to launch large-scale operations targeting each other’s command, control, and communications networks, a leading defence think tank said on Thursday.
In a strategic assessment released ahead of this weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies warned that the world may be entering a new nuclear arms race, with the Asia-Pacific region emerging as its central arena.
Taiwan and Regional Security in Focus
“Regional states and those with strategic interests are expanding their nuclear arsenals, while non-nuclear weapons states pursue long-range conventional-strike capabilities: both challenging strategic stability,” the IISS assessment said.
Taiwan, along with the conflict in Iran and uncertainties about U.S. commitments to the region, are expected to surface prominently at the IISS’ Shangri-La Dialogue.
The informal conference runs from May 29 to 31, drawing an eclectic mix of ministers, generals, intelligence chiefs, diplomats, analysts and weapons makers.
Following a summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this month, concerns have grown in Taipei over Washington’s commitment to Taiwan’s defence.
China has increased military activity around the island, which it claims as its own territory, while Taiwan rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims and remains on high alert.
Lack Of Guard Rails
Trump’s Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth will be speaking at the Singapore conference on Saturday, China has yet to confirm that its Defence Minister Dong Jun will be attending.
The 156-page IISS assessment examines evolving military doctrines across the region as well as how a conflict over Taiwan might play out.
While U.S. and Chinese forces had different aims in a Taiwan scenario – the Chinese to keep the U.S. and its allies at bay while the U.S. bolsters Taiwan’s resilience – the two sides could be expected to launch vast operations across military domains.
“Conflict with China would risk escalation, potentially to a nuclear level, given the strategic importance of Taiwan to Beijing,” the document says.
While both the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals still dwarf China’s stockpiles, U.S. officials and arms control analysts say China is expanding and improving its atomic weapons capabilities faster than any other nuclear power.
A Pentagon report released in December said China was on track to field 1,000 warheads by 2030.
The Federation of American Scientists estimates that Russia and the U.S. field 4,400 and 3,700 active warheads respectively while China has 620.
(With inputs from Reuters)
