Myanmar is back to becoming a “democracy,” declared Gen Ming Aung Hlaing, junta leader turned president after a farcical election.
But as Rajiv Bhatia, former Ambassador of India to Myanmar, told SNG on The Gist: “Myanmar is a country of vital importance for India for many factors. It’s our neighbour, four of our northeastern states, touch its boundaries. There is a long historical, cultural, and religious relationship. And then there is the strategic factor.”
In his view, both India and China – which have interests in Myanmar – should work together to safeguard their security as well as economic interests in that country.
“China is very well-entrenched in that country, and therefore India has to take note of that and act accordingly. China is indeed making progress in terms of its own interests, because they see Myanmar as their link to the Indian Ocean in the larger sense. And, so they are working on this on a long-term basis,” he said.
“But there is something significantly convergent between India and China. And it is that China also prioritizes stability and security in Myanmar. And I think this is exactly what we want. So, while it may sound very unconventional, I would say India and China should hold discussions to see whether despite their competition in Myanmar, whether they can work and build things together.”
China’s projects in Myanmar are largely under the framework of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), a key part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Key initiatives include the Kyaukphyu Deep-Sea Port and Special Economic Zone (SEZ), the Muse-Mandalay Railway, and vital oil and gas pipelines.
On other hand, India’s projects in Myanmar are primarily strategic infrastructure initiatives designed to bypass the narrow Siliguri Corridor (“Chicken’s Neck”) and connect India’s landlocked Northeast to Southeast Asian markets. These projects are central to India’s ‘Act East Policy’ and ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy.
Some of India’s flagship projects in Myanmar are the mega Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP) and the India-Myanmar-Thailand (IMT) Trilateral Highway.
Under KMTTP, the Sittwe Port in Myanmar is being developed to connect Paletwa via the Kaladan River, and finally to Zorinpui in Mizoram by road. The Sittwe Port and Inland Water Terminal at Paletwa are completed and operational.
Work on the 109 km road from Paletwa to the Indian border is ongoing but has faced delays due to the ongoing civil war and difficult terrain.
The Mizoram state government has recently said that it will resume work on KMTTP, which is currently under the control of the Arakan Army (AA) – a prominent anti-junta ethnic armed group in Myanmar.
Two-Track Policy
Due to the complexities of the military and democracy rule in Myanmar, India had been following a “two-track” policy there for decades, and according to Bhatia, New Delhi continues to adhere to that policy.
“Quite a long time back, the Indian government crafted its two-track policy … The first track is that we have to deal and develop good relations with the military government or whichever government is in power in Nay Pyi Taw.
“So if General Min Aung Hlaing is there as the Commander-in-Chief, we have to deal with him. If he is there as the President, we still have to deal with him. There is no doubt or there should be no doubt on that,” he said.
But the second track is also important.
“Under the second track, India favours a democratic governance model for Myanmar, except that this has to be developed by the people themselves. It cannot be exported by India, from outside or by any other country,” he said.
“So keeping that larger policy frame in mind, I think, India is doing its best to deal with a very difficult and complex situation,” he observed.
On the recent incidents of Indian nationals getting killed in the ongoing civil war there and the arrest of US and Ukrainian nationals by India under ‘anti-terror’ laws, Bhatia said, such challenges will remain.
“There are challenges in terms of handling the management of the India-Myanmar border region, much of which is no longer under the effective control of the government in Naypyitaw. And that is the reason why you see some of these incidents … In the past when the government controlled the entire region we could go to them and seek help,” averred Bhatia.
“And so, we have to deal with whichever groups there are in operation, in control. India is doing its best, but it is a difficult situation…So I would say in terms of policy, we are on the right track and we have to make sure that it gets fully implemented as well.”
He had a word about the new civilian government.
“If these people were berated and criticized for imposing the military coup, should they not now be given some credit for the fact that they perhaps realized their mistake, and they have gone back to the 2008 Constitution, which provides for a limited democracy?
So I think from a historical point of view, this is not a regression. This is some improvement.”
