China’s sustained military pressure on Taiwan reflects not just strategic signaling but deeper political constraints inside Beijing, according to Dr. Roger Chi-Feng Liu, Deputy Director of the Integrated Diplomacy Program at the DIMEs Center, Taiwan Think Tank.
Dr. Liu, who previously taught and conducted research in India for nearly eight years and is now an assistant professor at National Sun Yat-sen University, said the exercise—termed “Justice Mission 2025” by Beijing—was not a surprise. Taiwanese and US intelligence agencies were aware of the drills at least a week in advance, despite the absence of an initial public announcement
Speaking after the People’s Liberation Army’s latest exercises around Taiwan, Dr. Liu said prospects for lasting cross-strait peace remain limited under the current Chinese political system. Any meaningful de-escalation, he argued, would require fundamental political change in Beijing rather than tactical adjustments or confidence-building measures
The recent drills, described by the PLA as “Justice Mission 2025,” were not unexpected. Taiwanese and US intelligence agencies had advance warning of the exercise, despite the lack of an early public announcement. What distinguished the operation was proximity rather than scale. A PLA-designated target area in southern waters came within four nautical miles of Taiwan—its closest approach so far—though Chinese forces stayed outside Taiwan’s 24-nautical-mile territorial limit
“They are testing and moving closer every time,” Dr. Liu said, characterising the pattern as incremental escalation rather than preparation for immediate invasion
He linked the timing of the drills to two developments: recent US arms sales to Taiwan and statements by Japan’s new prime minister describing a Taiwan contingency as a Japanese contingency—moves Beijing appears intent on countering through calibrated pressure
Dr. Liu said Taiwan’s internal politics also shape its defence posture. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party lacks a legislative majority, allowing opposition parties to delay defence budgets by citing slow US weapons deliveries and unresolved problems with Taiwan’s indigenous submarine programme
Despite repeated PLA activity, Taiwanese society remains outwardly calm. Dr. Liu said most people do not expect an imminent invasion, even as the government strengthens civil resilience and energy stockpiles against blockade or quarantine scenarios.
On China’s long-term intent, Dr. Liu was blunt. Taiwan and China, he said, could only engage meaningfully if China’s political trajectory changed. Under Xi Jinping, Beijing prioritises regime control over reconciliation, leaving little room for durable peace across the Strait.
Watch closely—because the tactics Taiwan faces today echo across the Indo-Pacific, including India’s own strategic challenges.
