How does the uncertainty in neighbouring Bangladesh impact bilateral trade and connectivity between the two nations?
Should India worry about losing transit rights through Bangladesh? Like the latest Akhaura-Agartala cross-border rail link, which cuts travel time between Agartala and Kolkata from 31 hours to 10?
Given the apparently rising anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, particularly over New Delhi giving refuge to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, what are the options before New Delhi and Dhaka? What is the controversy over the Adani-Bangladesh deal power supply deal? What does a Trump White House mean for both nations?
Those were some of the questions we asked Dr Jayant Dasgupta, who’s served as India’s permanent representative to the World Trade Organisation and as Secretary, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, apart from other senior roles both in the government and the private sector.
New Delhi so far has made it clear that it would not let a “single issue” disrupt the relationship, and has pointed to the launch of 40 MW power transmission from Nepal to Bangladesh through the Indian grid, and the upgrading of infrastructure at the Petrapole-Benapole Integrated Check Post over the past month as evidence.
In this interview to The Gist, Dr Dasgupta decodes the dynamics at play and explains why regardless of who is in power in Bangladesh, trade and transit agreements are unlikely to be totally severed.
Here’s some interesting observations that he makes:
‘Bangladesh is hugely dependent on imports from India, for a variety of reasons. It has more than a 4,000 km land border on all sides with us.’
‘Bangladesh is the second largest garment exporter in the world, and it manufactures about 95% of the fabrics domestically, for which it requires a lot of cotton.
Raw cotton accounts for USD 1 billion out of the $11.6 billion worth of Indian exports to Bangladesh.
Mineral oils and it byproducts account for another $1.9 billion worth, and these are the two major things Bangladesh imports from India, apart from food items.
Replacing these imports from any other nation, like Pakistan or China, would be difficult and costly.
On connectivity and transit rights, he feels that the projects that are totally funded by India would continue, but those that require some funding from Bangladesh might be hit, due to country’s financial problems.
A Trump White House might not be pleasant for Mohammad Yunus, given his ties with Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee he defeated in 2016 to become President.
For more such fascinating insights into the relationship, including the role other stakeholders like Pakistan, China and allegedly the Clintons, watch the full interview.
